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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    Suddenly, my decision to snowchase to Carbondale in January is further validated, lol. Glad I made that call.
  2. *Flash*
    So the GFS idea of showing a weekend wave of low pressure along the front…don't buy the solution? Sorry, I just need some hope to cling on to right now.
  3. *Flash*
    Yep. i'm rooting for the Plateau to have a final shot as this is the only true 'Hail Mary' shot of seeing snow with the fam until next season. One year ago today middle TN was getting spoiled again with a decent ankle-biter snow event. Crazy how times have changed in just a year. Already lookin' ahead to 2024, in part, with a new ENSO to talk about.
  4. *Flash*
    Just need one more legit storm to track. Granted, they've been far and few between. Still, the thought of a less than ideal/weak Nina winter producing a trio of events...I'd take that as a moral victory.
  5. *Flash*
    All bark, no bite. Story of today's chase...
  6. *Flash*
    Notes from my chase to Tennessee City today. That TVS was trying it's best but fell apart as I approached it. A defined lowering yes...but surface winds were just so weak. Really the most notable feature was the ground-to-cloud lightning. There was plenty of it out that way. I'll post some footage later because whatever hail shaft/wall cloud I encountered was worth the trip.
  7. *Flash*
    Not sure about chasing tomorrow morning. Still tempted but seems too hit/miss below 2500 feet. I prefer a set chase as opposed to a goosechase.
  8. *Flash*
    I'll pass on Chatty for now...but will certainly keep an eye on things. Ideally I wouldn't have to hit any eastern valleys and keep travels confined to the plateau.
  9. *Flash*
    Trying to figure out if I take the older kiddos to Sewanee or Monterey on Sunday. Those are my favorite snow-chasing destinations on the plateau. Would love to be able to keep a drive within a few hours.
  10. *Flash*
    Doesn’t the Euro tend to overamp? As a middle TN resident, would love to actually see a NW trend work in our favor but I’m not sure the Euro has the best beat on this yet.
  11. *Flash*
    ULL, weather man's woe. Hopefully, it turns into a wow. 18z ECMWF Ens...doesn't look too shabby for middle TN.
  12. *Flash*
    Yeah, yeah, I wish this was all snow...and yeah, we didn't get hit as hard as Texas/Arkansas...but 3 waves of ice in 3 days still made for a memorable week...
  13. *Flash*
    12z GFS giveth, 18z GFS taketh away. Probably a more realistic look for next weekend. Still early.
  14. *Flash*
    Just waking up. Regardless of what happens, that's some healthy digging/trough action. Interesting this is occurring right as the +PNA and +NAO starts to dip. Why do I have this sick feeling the same places that cashed in January 24-25 will score again?
  15. *Flash*
    I've been so focused on this week's weather, I haven't been paying attention to the long-term. Seems like we're set for a warm rest of the month before one last winter hurrah just in time for spring?
  16. *Flash*
    In summary, I received around 0.5" of total sleet/freezing rain accretion over 3 waves this week. The middle wave late Tuesday was the big one as it brought half that total and triggered a rare ISW for Dickson county. We should start to melt out later today.
  17. *Flash*
    OHX has a fear of being wrong and it shows. If a WWA had severe criteria layers, I'd certainly think this is an 'enhanced risk'.
  18. *Flash*
    As a Dickson county resident, they need to extend that ISW eastward a few counties. They are ultra conservative so I wouldn't be surprised if they don't budge. That quarter inch ice line is going to verify east of the TN River regardless.
  19. *Flash*
    Thanks, all. I'm just curious per Jax's post (always solid by the way ). I still have the 2005-06 winter analog in my mind though I'd have to check to see if there was an ENSO fade/transition that year. I believe February 2006 was amplified and has oscillating warm and cold stretches. I'm hoping if we get some mild intrusions, they are short-lived. Call me a little gunshine as I'm concerned this winter will make like 2016-17/2018-19/2019-20 which had bad January's AND February's for the midstate. Granted, for my locale, I probably should be more focused on the short term. Over/under is 0.19.5 of total ZR QPF for the week. I'll take the under for now.
  20. *Flash*
    I'd say this at this point...the frozen QPF axis is relatively known. It will be interesting to see if any of the models trend juicier overnight...
  21. *Flash*
    I agree with you, Carver. I don't such a dramatic last-second trend that takes all of middle TN out of the game. Maybe southern middle gets taken out but that's all I can imagine.
  22. *Flash*
    So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct?
  23. *Flash*
    Does anyone have the Memphis AFD link handy by chance?
  24. *Flash*
    Good point; however, I think even with the northern last-minute adjustment, the southern net will allow WWA's to be posted along and north of 40 at least for middle TN. I hate saying that b/c it's so cliche but I could see that scenario unfolding. Side note: One of these days, OHX's over-conservative approach is going to bite them. Not saying their latest write-up is wrong at all though I am saying I look forward to their next serving of crow. To the public they take any forecast and make it sound so blah. It's irritating to me. Flash vent over. Carry on.
  25. *Flash*
    If you can't beat em, join 'em...
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