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*Flash*

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About *Flash*

  • Birthday December 6

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    www.hisgirlfryday.com

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  • Location:
    White Bluff, TN

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  1. *Flash*
    I do think our warmer periods will be more frequent throughout the winter but I also think our source regions won't struggle to get fed, fill up, and overflow thanks to that -EPO. The visual that comes to mind ironically stems from the summer months during which I take my kids to the splash pad often. Those big buckets? They're filling up every 50 seconds as hyper littles scatter beneath. But those 10 seconds from the point the bucket starts to tilt to complete splashdown are glorious. Our 2024-25 winter in a nutshell.
  2. *Flash*
    Don't quote me on this next month, but based on how the past month has gone, I'm fine with sNOw in the short term. Just give me seasonal temps that get me in the holiday spirit. That's all I can ask for the final six weeks of any year. For west/middle TN, any accumulation before the new year is gravy.
  3. *Flash*
    Moving this here based on the content though it does tap into my Friday evening post.
  4. *Flash*
    Yes sir, I’m seeing that as well!
  5. *Flash*
    I still have many questions about this winter. For instance, I'm a bit worried the pattern goes warmer longer after our seasonally cool start to December and that we have a substantial thaw in January. For February, all bets are off as the ENSO relaxes. Gut applied to recent climo and analogs, we either go considerably cold or considerably warm. I advise we hope for the former, prepare for the latter. Lord knows where the equatorial teleconnections will be by then. Like some on here, I've been reading some of Webber's recent thoughts on X and agree that a -EPO/+TNH combo may be a saving grace for the southeast this year. That said, I expect most of the DJF arctic air intrusions will invade the northern plains and points S/SSE as opposed to SE/E due to how crappy the Atlantic is setting up. It's almost cliche to mention, but I suspect I-44 and points east into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley will be a primary battle zone this year. While I don't expect an historic, blowtorch winter, I'm anticipating a two-week window after the new year for most of us to capitalize on something good. I think there will be some more fun and games next month as well. As always, time will tell...
  6. *Flash*
    A cool but not brutally cold December sounds not only good but increasingly likely. Even if it’s just phantom hope based on climo-based algorithms, I’ll take the appearance of blue.
  7. *Flash*
    Per WKRN (News 2): https://www.wkrn.com/weather-headlines/middle-tennessee-2024-2025-winter-weather-outlook-heres-what-to-expect/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR36JnLsixXVyMBjYYZREhfNnSgfheXBhetW0CFqNcPZ6Yh-5kqwlaX_UFY_aem_UgjxkAu77twDDCQ1TSv0HA They sure seem optimistic!
  8. *Flash*
    At least we don’t have to be teased. Better Lucy not come out at all then tempt us with the football…
  9. *Flash*
    I know there's some new 2024-25 winter thoughts emerging in the summer/fall discussion. Just wondering if those ideas should move to this thread? From what it sounds, we have a warm November on tap. From there, we could see a few weeks of normal to below normal conditions in December before Nina climo takes hold and we stay mild through most of January/February (outside some token transient cold shots). I've noticed 2016-17 and 2022-23 analogs popping up in other forums which isn't good, granted for my location, we fared decently with 3-5" total snow in those seasons. Sure doesn't feel like 2010-11 when CPC went warm in their forecast but the pattern evolved almost to the opposite of what they forecasted.
  10. *Flash*
    No joke, it started to pour after my last post. A quick 0.05-0.1" to break the dry spell. What are the evens?
  11. *Flash*
    Wishing everyone on here a happy weekend and measurable rain! Per mid/east TN QPF forecast grids...
  12. *Flash*
    The amount of rain received late September has kept October looking decent in middle TN, better than 2016 and 2007, that's for sure. Granted, I'm concerned at the rate we're going heading into November. Ironically, our areas would be in rougher shape without those tropical remnants last month. If we can score a precip pattern that stalls west of the mountains, that would be ideal.
  13. *Flash*
    That was the first thing that came to mind when I saw their first call. Like some, I put little stock in those copy/paste maps this time of year. We're still a month away before we know how the first half is going to play out. It's mostly banter and speculation at this point.
  14. *Flash*
    Milton now has a CDG ring, a rare, high cloud-top signature only displayed with the most intense storms. Recon could find some historical information soon. For now, sustained winds are still holding at 180 mph.
  15. *Flash*
    I'm wondering if there should be a separate tropical thread? Either way, it's been a fascinating weather day. I didn't think when it started we would be talking about Milton threatening Wilma's lowest Atlantic pressure mark (882 mb), but here we are wondering if this thing will flirt with 200 mph peak winds before dry air starts to fix in. Certainly, the explosive tightening of the core has been textbook material. Curious if this will have room to weaken down to CAT-3 before landfall if the intensity ceiling keeps climbing...?
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