Just as an observation from a few previous winters, the 12K NAM's surface output often seems a bit odd and tends to overdo the QPF in quantity and spread it out over a massive region. I've hunted verification scores at 500 and surface between the different resolutions of the NAM, but I have not found any. 3KM NAM should give us more clarity once it is in range, I'm wary of this 12KM output.