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Neblizzard

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Everything posted by Neblizzard

  1. Neblizzard
    Models can’t be trusted 24 hours out let alone 15 days out. It’s amazing you always post when they show an unfavorable solution for snow. The models are finally predicting warming closing in on the polar stratosphere . If the PV stretches then cold air can plunge south mid-late December into January for the east.
  2. Neblizzard
    I see you’re back in full force hoping for another blowtorch . Glad to see you posting again.
  3. Neblizzard
    Actually now that I’m looking storms are firing in western NY state. That could be our shot later on tonight
  4. Neblizzard
    Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing . Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done.
  5. Neblizzard
    So another bust incoming? Horrible
  6. Neblizzard
    That’s been the trend for the last day
  7. Neblizzard
    This was always was a fast mover I don’t think anyone is shocked by that
  8. Neblizzard
    How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?
  9. Neblizzard
    Yup sun is coming out now , that was one of the concerns . Instability is rising .
  10. Neblizzard
    The 6z NAM has the low going right over NYC. Perfect track for 3-4 inch rain totals.
  11. Neblizzard
    Doesn’t matter , it’s now casting time .
  12. Neblizzard
    Since when is the NAM been God like this winter?
  13. Neblizzard
    We need that vortex south of Alaska to slow down or retrograde. If that can happen we’ll build some ridging out west. The negative NAO looks great but the pacific can do it’s damage with this set up.
  14. Neblizzard
    Yes it is the only model showing this scenario. Pay no attention to snowman19s posts. He’s like a parrot every winter.
  15. Neblizzard
    Not sure what you’re looking at. The ensembles have a robust -NAO building by day 8. Whether that happens or not is another story
  16. Neblizzard
    Here’s the 6z NAM
  17. Neblizzard
    Correct. Nice front end thump that goes to rain. The ULL takes it time on this run but eventually we get into the CCB
  18. Neblizzard
    It’s heavy snow from hours 81-84 . Should be about the same precip as 12z
  19. Neblizzard
    Always ? That’s not true. We all missed your posts the last year . Glad to have you back.
  20. Neblizzard
    Less confluence Over southeastern Canada, so the primary is able to move further north. Flips to snow as the coastal takes over. 1-2 inches for the city.
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