Jump to content

Neblizzard

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,110

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Neblizzard

  1. Neblizzard
    The disagreement in models up to this point is a forecast nightmare . So it’s now to now casting . We’ll have to follow the shore range HI RES data
  2. Neblizzard
    The overnight part of the storm still slams the metro area
  3. Neblizzard
    It’s going to be further south than the 18z EURO and 0z NAM. An absolute soaker for the metro.
  4. Neblizzard
    Yup. Some of the worst lightning I’ve seen in years
  5. Neblizzard
    Storms exploding here in Elizabeth NJ. Few bolts from the blue in the last 5 minutes
  6. Neblizzard
    Kenilworth NJ getting rocked for the 3rd time today . I haven’t seen lightning this bad in years
  7. Neblizzard
    Yup. His La Niña obsession this winter failed.
  8. Neblizzard
    We have almost 40 inches for the winter where some people were calling for La Niña to torch our region. We won.
  9. Neblizzard
    Exactly. Usually in a typical La Niña the pattern flips late January into early February. The fact that it’s almost mid month and we’ve had 3 snowstorms just shows La Niña didn’t win the battle this year.
  10. Neblizzard
    The damage has been done. Over 28 inches of snow this month and the weeklies look good for the next 3-4 weeks.
  11. Neblizzard
    I think it’s fair to say the “graze” solutions are less likely now. The north trend is real and the ridging out west is robust.
  12. Neblizzard
    Let him get his 5 PDD day in now, it’s nice and early in the morning.
  13. Neblizzard
    It’s far from a typical La Niña Pattern, despite what you say. Remember the big “failed call” from you in December? The GFS is gonna be right with that confluence. This isn’t coming north.. boy that worked out well
  14. Neblizzard
    It’s a west based -NAO which is helping the strong confluent flow over the northeast. In this instance a -PNA can help us by building a stronger SE ridge. This will become a squeeze play , the EPS and its members keep coming north but only so far north. I like where we are 5 1/2 days out.
  15. Neblizzard
    You said the same thing about the December storm. How the GFS couldn’t be wrong with the strength of the confluence up north. We know how that turned out. This has room to come north some especially if the SE ridge can expand a bit.
  16. Neblizzard
    Exactly. Why would anyone trust models 7-10 days out?
  17. Neblizzard
    Exactly. You don’t need a strong storm with the amount of moisture this storm will tap into. Having a massive high to the north will generate strong winds even without a very deep surface low
  18. Neblizzard
    Yes it’s much better than 6z. The high is stronger to the north and trends at H5 were a step in the right direction. I would take that run as a positive for the metro.
  19. Neblizzard
    It’s a colder solution and a shift south . Onto the GFS...
  20. Neblizzard
    The period from Christmas to New Years looks really good on the EPS. Robust PNA ridging coupled with an -AO/-NAO. Hardly La Niña like...
  21. Neblizzard
    It adds to the ferocity of a storm. Nothing like strong winds and heavy blinding snow.
  22. Neblizzard
    Canadian and GFS are 14-16 hours in duration
  23. Neblizzard
    Also notice the enhanced PNA spike, very encouraging trends
  24. Neblizzard
    My brother and I met storm field several times when we used to visit Larry Cosgrove at UPN 9. Two class acts
  25. Neblizzard
    50/50 low and -NAO are your friend so far. Hopefully that look holds. I’ve been saying getting the SV to weaken enough is our best shot at fending off this La Niña. We’ll see...
×
×
  • Create New...