Neblizzard
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Everything posted by Neblizzard
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Prediction of the first snowfall for the NYC area.
Neblizzard replied to MJO812's topic in New York City Metro
January 4th -
We may have to wait until late December for better El Niño forcing and favorable MJO progression
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Areas west of I-95 are the question mark
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Here in Union County NJ, we dodged the bullet. I’ve been flooded out from Irene and IDA came darn close. This would have been catastrophic for my area had this been 25 miles west.
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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The 12z NAM focuses the heaviest rain from NYC up thru Northern NJ and the Hudson Valley.
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Amounts ranging from 1-5 inches across the metro. Indeed his call was the best …
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If this trend continues the NYC metro will have to worry about severe weather
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It’s more west than yesterday
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You have the maps?
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If verified that’s a Bob redux
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Most Mets and others have agreed this would be a fish storm. I don’t see any hype about an east coast strike
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The models can’t even get a pattern right within 3-5 days , do you buy everything they say when they show a breakdown ?
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He never does. The La Niña has basically peaked and is becoming more east based. That could lead to a stronger MJO down the road . Just what you want to see…
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85-86 is an example
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When it shows warm you’ll believe it. When it shows cold? You’ll deny it…
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Where did I say it was a -QBO in 2010-2011? Let’s get those 5 posts in quickly today.
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Oh I do. How about the strong La Niña of 2010-2011 with a strong -PDO? The atmospheric blocking overwhelmed the pattern most of that winter. You disappear all year long and start posting every fall being a troll. There’s a reason why you’re limited to 5 posts per day. You do absolutely nothing to contribute to this board. Sorry Mods I speak the truth.
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He doesn’t understand the effects a easterly QBO can have on the stratosphere. Being primarily focused on the ENSO state and PDO is bad forecasting. We’ll have good chances at periodic blocking this year. Some extreme -NAO situations are possible.
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And if there’s enough blocking in the higher latitudes the SE ridge will be muted . Much like last winter.
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Just like your winter forecast last year . We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year.
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Nothing is a lock …
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That’s pivoting east, NYC will not dry slot
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Forky is right about the UKMET. We’re in for an assault the next 6-8 hours
