CT Valley Snowman

Around 90 here in the CTRV at 1 PM and dewy. Dog days baby.

Yeah storms looks solid up there.

What's left of it looks to track between Kevin and I, towards smellington.

Getting some distant thunder and a few flashes. Storm looks to track just south of here.

Rain has been plentiful, convection flaccid. Without a cane threat or some decent convection, things can get pretty boring this time of year. Anomalous weather in general is more interesting. Even when we get exceptional heat, heavy rain, or dews, that is at least somewhat more interesting, but obviously some big-time convection or a legit cane threat much more so. And before I get stoned, no I do not root for death and devastation. I simply enjoy seeing the power of mother nature on display and enjoy active and exciting weather.

We all now know the deal. There will be some warmer periods and some cool downs, and the month will likely finish AN. Because that is pretty much our standard default unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. And as the month progresses, we gradually start to step down as we lose daylight etc. 19 out of the past 24 months have finshed AN at BDL, according to a quick search I did. You need some pretty strong evidence to bet against that.

Dave is not a met, but he is very knowledgeable and a good commnicator. Consistently voted as the best forecaster in WMASS by the Pioneer Valley Advocate and has a large following. Understands the local climatology, topography, and nuances of forecasting in the region well. His focus is WMASS but he extends into SVT,SWNH and NCT. He's not infallible. but I find him very solid.

That's a problematic looking rain train from from Providence down to Old Saybrook.

Wouldn't be shocked if some of us in the interior west of the heavy rain axis pick up like .5 to 1.5" in afternoon convection.

Would rather jack in the winter but that basically doesn't happen here.

There are some stations within a radius of a few miles from here that are up around 4". Others are closer to 3".

Thankfully there is some movement and not a complete stall. Already up around 3" in this area.

Pounded.

HRRR is close to a jack here. Don't really need or want it. Send it up Dendy's way.

Looking at radar, the best action may stay west of me. Current activity doesn't look as impressive as earlier.