Orangeburgwx

That good for us?

Rule of thumb CAD is always underesrimated, have fun Bloo!

Like others, I think that is because the energy is more strung out and further south... Sorry Virginia!

That ZR line exploded southward at 48... Down into northern Orangeburg County

I'm sitting here laughing because if the southern trend continues my snowfall map from last night will be proven right

Now for the backside...

Made a snowfall map, link is in Banter

That ship sailed yesterday

TT since Pivotal updates slower...

0z FV3 looks more suppressed

Bad time for "take your child to work day"

Put the genie away until the next storm, our goose is cooked with this one buddy

TT mixes sleet in with it, Pivotal is the site to use for snow only

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The main concerns are a possibility of a wintry precipitation mix Saturday through Monday and heavy rain late Saturday through Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will extend from the Midwest into the mid- Atlantic region over the weekend. This ridge will direct a cold northerly flow into the forecast area. Low pressure along the western and central Gulf Coast Saturday will move northeast and be near the Southeast Coast Sunday and Monday. The GFS and ECMWF plus ensemble guidance are in good agreement showing this general pattern. Saturday...Rain is still expected to overspread the region Saturday. However, there is uncertainty with the timing. There will be considerable dry air to overcome initially. Compared to the ECMWF, the GFS has been faster moving the deeper moisture into the area. We used an average of the guidance with the chance increasing from southwest to northeast with pops increasing to categorical in the southwest part during the afternoon. It will be a cold day because of a wedge pattern and cloudiness. We followed the lower guidance temperatures. Good agreement model forecast soundings and surface wet bulb temperatures indicate all-liquid precipitation through the day Saturday. Saturday night...The strongest isentropic lift is forecast to arrive Saturday night with an easterly 40- to 50-knot h85 jet. Heavy precipitation may occur. An average of the GFS and ECMWF indicate rain totals Saturday night of 1 to 1.5 of an inch with the greater amounts in the south section. Model forecast soundings indicate liquid precipitation in the central and south sections, but mixed precipitation in the north. The profiles support mainly a rain and sleet mix but there may be enough surface-layer cooling for freezing rain in the north part. The NAM indicated a much colder near-surface layer. We leaned toward the ECMWF and GFS because of model consistency and more cold air is usually in place before what the NAM indicates actually occurs. The ECMWF depicted the surface wet bulb temperatures lowering to around 31 in our northern county of Lancaster. The GFS indicated around 34. We used the ECMWF and included a rain, freezing rain, and sleet mix in the north part. Based on the forecast temperatures there should be little freezing rain or sleet accumulation. However, a verifying forecast soundings just slightly cooler would lead to much more significant accumulations. Sunday and Sunday night...Heavy precipitation may continue into Sunday mainly associated with the h85 jet. Intensity may be less Sunday afternoon and night and the precipitation may become drizzle because of mid-level dry slotting. The GFS and ECMWF indicate rain totals 0.5 to 1 inch Sunday and Sunday night. The warm nose associated with the h85 jet should be more dominate Sunday. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings indicate a near-freezing cold near-surface layer continuing with a profile supporting mixed rain and sleet in the north part. Both models also show near-freezing wet bulb temperatures in the north part mainly in Lancaster County indicating a freezing rain threat. Again, based on the forecast temperatures there should be little freezing rain or sleet accumulation. However, a verifying forecast sounding just slightly colder would lead to much more significant accumulations. The rain totals through Sunday indicate there may be some localized minor flooding. The totals may eventually lead to river flooding at some of the river forecast points but frozen precipitation will occur over part of the headwaters indicating any river flooding will likely be minor. Monday through Tuesday...There is increased uncertainty Monday into Tuesday. Low-level cooling may occur on the backside of the low as it shifts farther east or northeastward. The models indicate wrap-around moisture but have not been consistent with the moisture depth and the development and placement of the cold upper system. The moisture and instability associated with the upper system plus wrap-around low-level moisture supports snow showers. The moisture will probably be shallow and the GFS and ECMWF liquid equivalent precipitation indicate light amounts. We have forecasted a chance of snow showers. Summary...Nearly all GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support periods of frozen precipitation in the north including Lancaster County. The threat timing is Saturday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence is increasing that within a few days a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning will be needed. Farther south in the central and south sections that include Columbia and Augusta there is less confidence of reaching advisory or warning criteria. The possible frozen precipitation timing for the central and south part is mainly Monday into Tuesday morning predominately associated with the cold upper system. Issues cannot be ruled out sooner in the Columbia area based on the NAM forecast of much more low-level cooling as early as Sunday. The rest of the medium-range period...We expect dry high pressure will dominate Wednesday. A warm front may bring rain Thursday. && Wow they wrote a book

What time does the 18z NAM run again?

Welp, Blue Ridge Parkway is gonna get closed for a longggg time

I second this

This is one case where I was just giving an observation of the 850s... Nothing else

5°C (9°F) temperature decrease across the SC midlands with the 12z compared to 0z

Hr96... Holy moly

Think the NAM will correct course or is this the trend?

Either buried or busted... Either way it is a kiss of death

Saturday Night Rain. Low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. I will be back in a bit guys, I need to buy some sandbags...

What do the ensembles look like Queen?

Something has me baffled... I'm trying to figure out how one plume of the GEFS came up with 7.17" QDF and 19" of snow for CAE... I get the ensembles are variables, but that run had to be smoking crack.