Orangeburgwx

ENSO is neutral right now...

12z GFS did exactly as I thought it would... Precip closer to the coast and temps a tick warmer for Monday

Well it is a start.... Lots of wiggle room left for that one

Yeah... NW trend can be your best friend or worse enemy... 4 days out and if it shifts much further us lowcountry SC/ENC guys are stuck with cold rain unless we luck up with a 1-million phase and drags the 850s down... It is going to be a boardwide nail biter

How far inland for snow?

I feel dirty about it too... Considering where I live is 95% torch with a NW trend, this is the one time I actually need it

More like a Southeast Super Bowl to remember... Hope they open the dome for a snowbowl

looks at 0z suites no comment

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure at the surface will help to start off the work week on the dry side. However the models are still indicating another surface cold front approaching the area on Tuesday. There should be some moisture return to the region ahead of this cold front. As the front approaches Tuesday, rain chances will increase through the day. Front will move rapidly east Tuesday night as colder air moves back into the cwa. On the back side of the exiting front, there may still be enough moisture across the northern counties to briefly cause a mixture of rain/snow as the precip exits. Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists that far out in the forecast period, and confidence remains low. The cold front is expected to be east of the area by Wednesday, with drier and colder conditions returning.

Eh... Took the chance like we always do when a 50/50/low rolls around (now watch we get triple thumped Monday, Wed/Thurs, and next weekend and somebody (my money is on Mack) complaining about the thread getting taken down early...

NW trend... We might get saved after all if the cold holds serve

I think you are the only one here with that viewpoint... No offense

Thank god the EPS saved my rear

I had a mini monsoon (TS force winds that sounded like my roof was going to blow off combined with a blinding rain) last night that gave me 2.6" of rain... Nkw only if that 2.6" was with the temp below freezing

I-77 and point east...

Weird thing is that I stayed cooler than both CLT and CAE yesterday.... And yet I'm further south

Fill in the CAE gap and we will be set

At this point... I would take a dusting

What about SC?

I got my therapy, I write fanfics as a hobby XD

Couldn't bring those wetbulbs up...

12z GFS jumped on board, but is a day quicker (Jan. 30th)

To be fair, I copied that from the webpage... And this was my morning CAE disco: LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The region will remain between two winter jets over the weekend into Monday, with the northern branch over the Ohio Valley and New England, while the southern branch moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This will support surface high pressure and dry weather. Temps will start chilly on Saturday with lows in the 20s and highs from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. As the surface high slips southward, surface winds will turn to the west and southwest, allowing temps to become a few degrees warmer each day and night. The next cold front will be in the vicinity on Tuesday. Models and ensemble means are in impressively good agreement with timing for a system 6 days away, but they do differ on the amount of moisture coming with the front. The GFS and GEFS mean indicate a better chance for showers with the front than the ECMWF, but have kept it relatively simple for now with a slight chance in the southeastern half of the FA, and low end chance in the northwest. Models diverge much more significantly after that time, and bear watching.

Took a peek at the weeklies and you are correct, but comes back raging cold last half of Feb/early March... Par for the course for the Southeast

As the saying goes "I believe that is a vast understatement..."