Orangeburgwx

I never seen convection gut that quick...

Still better than Hurricane Barry

There is a bubble of 40kt shear over the South Carolina midlands... It does not have a lot of time

Can we FOR ONCE keep the -NAO into winter?!

Come on guys it is only July...

You got that damn right

That ridge be like "Screw you South Carolina, you aren't done baking yet"

Thanks! Here is the data set I was looking at: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Sure you are looking at the right data? I am on the site and it shows 7/12/19 at 8.062

Gap grew: 7/13/19: 7.964 7/13/12: 8.039 7/13/11: 8.097

3km NAM is officially broke... 866mb hurricane at hr60 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019071012/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

Last 90 minutes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/383141713340006403/596805378650669066/20190705_163800.jpg

Feels like fall and I am not complaining! Currently cloudy and a cool 66... Have had 6.1" in the last week Thursday: .6" Friday: 1.5" Saturday: .9" Sunday: 2.2" Monday: .7" Yesterday: 2"

This looks downright painful for Feb. 2020... -NAO, +PNA dream combo but the SER gives us the finger https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1137008782708527104

I hope this varifies, could use the 10" of rain https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019060512/gfs_apcpn_seus_52.png

For thw first time since May 16th (when me and my mom got in a wreck) I have rain

Im in a severe thunderstorm watch (not complaining, about damn time we had some rain)

No banter, but want to share a pic of this beautiful ride I saw at Walmart this morning

Fwiw.... GFS hinting at a possible weaker version of Micheal (identical track) on the 16th. It would give me 6" of rain

I "officially" hit 100 back to back on Wednesday and yesterday... Glad that the ridge is weakening

Do I dare mention... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019052818/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_eus_6.png

For what it is worth: 12z GFS spawns Tropical Storm Barry off the Carolina coast next weekend (second run in a row) 12z FV3 is off its rocker with a 961mb hurricane in the Bay of Campeche 12z CMC was a goose egg (BUT no 100° temps) 12z EURO just started rolling

No freaking lie...

Yeah but when the EURO backs it up?...

This is from 1025pm (waiting on the update) Friday, a cold front riddled with convection will work through the CWA from west to east. I have high confidence that everyone will see rain, starting in the northwestern counties during the morning, then reaching the eastern areas by afternoon. We are still 2 days away from the event, so there could be some adjustments needed to the timing. As far as the severe threat is concerned, the current slight risk from SPC looks like the most reasonable course of action this far in advance. However, it would not surprise to see the enhanced risk expanded westward by at least a couple of tiers of counties when the new Friday forecast from SPC comes out overnight. Shear looks to be very strong Friday, with the area in the favorable quadrant 100+ knot jet at 500 mb. Instability will be modest because mid lapse lapse rates will only be seasonable, but it won`t take a ton of CAPE to cause problems given the expected bulk shear. The biggest area of uncertainty lies with the convective evolution, as well as the mesoscale high/low couplet that should form with forcing this strong. The GFS is not picking up well on this, whereas the 00Z/06Z ECMWF and the 12Z hi res guidance do have a reflection of this evolution. If the ECMWF/NAM solution is correct with the mesolow moving north northeastward bisecting the CWA on Friday, areas along and east of the mesolow track will have an enhanced risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, due to increased low level helicity, increased surface convergence, and the potential for stronger rear inflow jets behind any bow echos that form. Unfortunately, our models are simply not good enough yet to forecast the exact evolution of these features 48 hours in advance, so we just have to mention the possibility in our discussions and hope we can refine things more as we get closer to the event. There will also be some heavy rain with the front as PWs increase to 1.5+ inches under strong divergence aloft. At this time, excessive amounts do not seem likely due to the quick speed of the front, but local issues may arise that could require flood advisories, or possibly a warning or two in our flashy areas. One other issue Friday will be the winds ahead of the front. Given the strong winds expected at 850 mb, we will likely have strong enough winds mixing down to warrant at least a Lake Wind Advisory, if not a full on Wind Advisory.