Orangeburgwx

Bwahahahahahahaa Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

That would be the mother of all water spouts because even that recon path shows a spinning low... Those 60-64kt wind barbs really are a "what are they doing there?!" feature Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Get a load of this interesting feature to the west of Karen over the Bahamas, ULL? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

So this is one case where the recon fixes are wrong? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

N at 350.. Going to ride the upper part of the cone then Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

That does not look like due north to me... WNW Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

That is a large center... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Jerry at it again... Latest IR Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already. Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low. The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Uh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

FWIW Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Hmm... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

I want to know why that sucker goes due southwest at the end, under normal circumstances, that would be a hit on the Carolinas Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

They are, and it also has an impact on Karen, wouldnt that bobble allow her to get further north before the turn if it continues? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Slight west bobble past 2 advisories (from 340 at 2am to 335 at 5&8) Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Since the 12z suites have not run yet... 6z raises some eyebrows on the GEFS, and it makes sense because as Jerry slows down, ridge will build over both him and Karen. Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

5am: NNW 330 degress at 12 mph 11am: NNW 340 degress at 10 mph Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

I see an eye Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Go look at the 1min meso Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Holy moly those cloud tops... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Jerry is back from the dead... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

I don't think Jerry is done with his tricks yet... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

Dropped one right after (#7) in the eye... Stabilized at 993 for now Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

What in the hell... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

The dropsconde on the NE side (Dropsconde 4) has me a bit perplexed... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk