WinterWolf

Seems to still do it at times. Any one of these SW's can mess up this whole set up...and the final outcome could be nothing like what we have seen so far. This may potentially turn out to be nothing like what we've been seeing so far. This is so far from being figured out...??

Too many pigs fighting in the same feed-sack. All those SW's have to sort themselves out, and hopefully not rob all the energy available for our potential system?

Bottom line here, at least we have something to track and watch that has "Some Potential" for SNE currently. It's a complicated/convoluted set up with all the Short-Waves floating around, and how all that comes to together/gets resolved will obviously determine what ultimately happens with this potential system, and how it affects the area. Late Blooming is definitely a possibility, but I wouldn't be worrying about that 6 days out...to much time left to go, where all options are still on the table. No option is more likely than any other at this lead time imo.

I don’t think we’re even close to knowing what it will look like at this stage.

Lol..it’s 7 days out, anything is on the table! Go with the ensembles at this point as Scott said.

Ahh, it did this a week and a half ago too. Looked weenieish and then sh*t the bed big time. I’m not buying it yet!

I was more talking the snowfall aspect with regard to peak..for us in SNE it’s late Jan through mid February I believe.

But the fact that we are approaching peak winter climo...that in and of itself is a help imo. Nothing like the peak of a season to deliver some goods imo. We’ll see soon enough.

Will said the EPS Has significantly improved overnight....so I would imagine it’s not showing nearly what the GEFS is. But as we said, the 11-15 has gone Poof as we close in, so take that for what it’s worth...which is not much. But at least they looked better, that’s always a little better than the other way around.

Not that the icon is that great, but it’s not all that far out in fantasy land at 7 days. A long time for sure in model land, but it’s not 10+ days anymore either... lol trying to find the positives here I guess...??

Or be a Cutter...you forgot that option- not surprisingly! Superstorm James in full force lately. That’s what happens when you’re snow starved I guess.

What was it like at 12z? Massive shift in a good way? Or bad? Probably bad right? It’s 9 days out so doesn’t matter anyway...

Was up in N. Maine last weekend sledding..was frigid but a great time. And it was good to get away from “everything!” So I hear what you’re saying.

O I get it..thanks for clarifying though. Certainly don’t need a perfect pattern here for a good storm. Was just replying to Rays post about Presidents’ Day..which is a month away. Hoping we see some action with at least a couple winter events before we lose another full month, was more my point.

I agree there is definitely plenty of time...lots of winter to go. But if we Punt a Full 4 weeks with nothing but a few sloppy inches, normal snow is gonna be tough to get to. Unless of course we score a Bomb at some point, and then it's a different story. But that seems a long shot currently.?

Dam, I hope something pops before then...that's pretty much a full Month from now lol. We need to start seeing some snow in the next week to hope to make it to normal this season..at least for a lot of us. Sitting at 17.2" so far this season..long way to go for normal snow here.

It's just eye candy right now...nothing more. But, the take away is that both major models have now shown a bomb in that 2/2-2/3 time frame. Doesn't mean much but that a system could be looming in and around that time frame. I certainly wouldn't be optimistic about though...not the way things cave in this season so far.

LMAO...yes exactly.

LOL...ya cuz that's so obvious. Did you just pull that out of your Arse or what???

Lol just a mess...too many cooks in the kitchen idea there. Nothing good usually comes out of that set up...to convoluted it seems. But it's way out there anyway, so anything can and will change. Let's hope it's a positive change for SNE?

It's way out there in time...but as Ginxy said Tele's look like crap going forward. Sure we can time something right(and sure hope we do), but after a lil good news/better look yesterday, it looks to have kind of reverted back to a "not so good look" in the LR again. Certainly not trying to be a downer, but She ain't gonna let us out this year I fear. I'm just hoping for One Major Storm out of this season(We missed out here on the Early Dec one for the most part)...even 06 gave us a bomb; I'd take that and run and let Spring come after that.

You're not yourself...better grab a Snickers Bar.

Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit? Or another head-fake? I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range.

Although a storm of that magnitude would turn this Crap season around on a Dime...for all. Too bad it's not 4 days away...and even then it would be iffy in this season.

Lol yup...we're learning fast now. That bomb is a fantasy anyway. It'll be gone next run...or a cutter. Pipe dream for sure. Just eye candy that's all it is now. I mean 10 days out...what can go wrong? Euro won't have anything close to that GFS depiction...not that the Euro hasn't had it's flops of late too...