WinterWolf

Lol..that’s always the first giveaway that it’s not good news for winter enthusiasts. Enthusiasm is gone....and rightfully so. It’s just a LIL rain for most. Climo is still hostile for anything of consequence during the first week/half of November in SNE anyway. So now we wait for the next possibility Of some wintertime fun...

Where it’s supposed to be this time of year anyway.... Im good with that outcome now.

Feb 13? Feb 13 delivered 33” here for me.

I guess the Point is, everybody in the business of meteorology has their own feelings and ideas. Just like in any profession. Scores may say it’s improved, but some In the field feel somewhat Otherwise. It’s the best..it’s always been the best, but I can see why some folks feel modeling is worse now. All you have to do is point out the new FV3/GFS... Anyway..good discussion.

True!

As I said...the verification scores will say it’s improved; but overall, The MET(who teaches at the university level/has his doctorate in Atmospheric sciences), agreed that it’s not the same, and the tweaks made it more prone to wild swings etc etc...

Not in my opinion Ray...and I’ve talked to a few Pro METS, and they agree, that it’s not as stable as it once was. So We’ll have to disagree on that.

Good post and good points.

All true Will. But take that stuff(Pretty colors and super refined resolution and such) away, and they’re all jumping all over more than they used to. GFS is total trash now..that’s not better than it was five years ago. And the Euro isn’t the same as it once was. But I get it...and Social media is certainly not helping and adding to the issues. Anyway, I’m glad we have this site, and you pros to explain and teach us less knowledgeable peeps what to look for and how it all works.

Yes sir...blizzard of 96 was slated to miss all of SNE to the south a few days before-was suppresses. Then a couple days before modeling started bringing it farther and farther north. And then bingo..it was game on up here too. Oops sorry guys..thought you were all talking about Jan 96 blizzard..?

All the METS say otherwise...I’m sure some verification scores proves they’re right. But the GFS is worse then it’s ever been(not that it was ever all that good to begin with). And the Euro..while still the best(and best by far now that the GFS is total dung), still isn’t as good as it was before it’s upgrade imo. Before it’s upgrade, the Euro would latch onto something, and stay on it like a bloodhound...now it’s all over the place on each run..at 3 days out. They ruined that model after the upgrade! So if you go by that...then they seem worse than they were. But the pros will argue to the cows come home otherwise. Overall(Taking all modeling as a whole) I’m sure things have improved some over the last five years...but it’s hard to see it in real time sensible weather forecasting. At least from what we discuss on here.

And early November at that.

Perfect climo system for Early November..a few flakes to an inch or two at most for SNE. And a lil more substantial for NNE and the elevated areas of the northern areas. Just what you’d expect for this early time period.

Well the model is a weak POS...so they kind of go hand in hand....

Wait, What happened to your “look at the trends not the snow maps,” from yesterday? The trends yesterday weren’t our friend either. Lol. But you wanted to play the old “Fool yourself game” yet again. And in early November on top of it? Rookie move Kev.

Yup.

Really Kev, It says afterward, right after how it’s being developed under the FV3, that it is inheriting the “GFS Moniker!!” I mean please, just admit for once, that you’re WRONG!!

Ya I get it...flatter is better for us with this. But this is going back and forth still, it’s 90 hours out, so lots to be determined with this. I’m not so sure it’s trending in a snowy direction for us, like you seem to think? But we’ll see soon enough. At least it’s something to track with the possibility of it being wintry. That alone is a nice thing.

Well 18z Euro has you at a half inch of snow and me at quarter inch of snow. Personally, that isn’t looking to snowy currently. Maybe it comes back again at 0z??

It’s definitely still the best. But I still say it’s not as good as it was before they upgraded it(or downgraded it lol) a few years back. Whatever they did to it...it’s not as good as it was before they did it.

Great post!! Laughed good reading that. Especially your number 4....it’s just too much work trying to figure It out most times.

In an hour the real model comes out...that should give us a decent clue.

But more amped than its previous run...heading towards the Euro....?

Yes sir...my brother in law was stuck by the tunnel for hours and hours that evening on his way home. Took him 6 hours to get from Weston back home to Meriden that night in the snow.

Ya I thought the same thing..way to early to maintain anything here in SNE. And T Day is late this year to boot..so it won’t be white from anything being modeled currently imo.