WinterWolf

But probably not lol... Hey I hope so, but I think the winter has shown us its hand. And it isn’t a good one.

Certainly not trolling Gerry..I don’t roll like that at all. The look has changed, and that was my point. Ginxy said it too..the look isn’t what it was Late last week. It’ll change again too. I hope we get fortunate. As Scott said, I hope we are on the right/good side of the gradient.

The LR has been ridiculous lately...changes from decent to bad from run to run it seems..don't give it another thought. Let's hope this weekend delivers the goods. And then we can trampoline into Spring like DIT and Dr. Dewsh are calling for.

Agreed. And the next run it'll show something different so it won't matter anyway lol.

You don't say...Did you really think that was gonna stay there? C'mon man you're a trained MET...even I knew that'd be gone in a day. Especially on the Goofus.

Ya if this 0z run of the Euro looks similar to this...fire one off Bob.

Miller B here now...instead of the original Miller A idea...?

Man that Euro 18z run is worlds apart at 500 from that 18z GFS. This might not be dead just yet.

Good Post. I agree. Just be nice if this could come together to give a decent Warning event to the area. Very discouraging to winter enthusiasts when everything continually trends in a negative direction all the time. Doesn't need to be an 18" er or anything..but a solid Warning event would be some fun for a change. But it'll do whatever it wants so I get it.

Just trying to have a little fun....we've done this before on here in the past. I feel it's going to show a miss OTS/weaker set up over all. That's my feeling on it.

Well you were on the rains to quebec the other day, and Toss every model train as well. Now you flipped and flopped like the fish out of water. I agree that lots of these trend away at this midrange point only to come back again with a vengeance. But this has other things working against it too...like too many S/W's in the flow that are mucking up the waters so to speak. And a ridge that's flattening now it seems...these are distinct issues that can work against this coming back. It's not over, but it's not looking promising or encouraging either at 12z. I'm sick of 1-3" of slop...I'm with Ray, if it aint gonna be a Warning situation, let's have it be sunny and 45-50!

You're correct. But it just has that "Feel" unfortunately.....the feeling of the season has showed it's hand....and it can't be changed. I know, it's a stupid idea, but it has that feel. I hope I'm wrong. You like to Hedge Berg...what's your call for the upcoming 12z Euro? I think it will be a Whiff....more east and progressive due to the western ridge flattening out...not good signs.

Aaaa, it's trending in the wrong direction too...it's just still Hung over from the bender it went on last night. It'll be a whiff on the next run. And the Euro will close this out for sure in an hour with a whiff/Miss. Man, the winter that just can't deliver rolls on....

What ever analogy we want to use....too many turds in the bowl; or too many pigs in the feed sack, it's all the same. Too much energy/SW's that never ever come together like they should for a strong system by us. I said this yesterday when Dendrite posted the picture of all the SW's all over the place, and he said good luck trying to figure this out. Those rarely deliver imo. The Euro will seal the deal in 90 minutes or so, it'll be east/a whiff for sure, and that's gonna be that. Sure, Yes this can turn around like boxing day did on a dime; but the Tenor so far is for disappointment this winter...and this is following right along with that idea...to a "T." If this indeed does go down the toilet like its looking like currrently. I'm ready for Spring around here for sure.

When does any potential major system not go through this east jog Whiff, just after everything shifted west the run before. It's all fruitless to think either way on what modeling is showing currently. I realize that Persistent forecasting is not prudent...but the Tenor of the winter has been up and in...or a miss. This winter doesn't seem to want to produce much since the 1st of Dec., so I'm thinking a miss if we don't get at least a Partial Phaze of some sort. But it's still too early to say one way or the other...and that's just where we are currently. Lot's of S/W's running around..lots yet to resolve. Everything later tmrw or Thursday could go back tucky and west...or be miss altogether. Long way to go with this one.

I already said that yesterday, after somebody said it will last 24 hrs. 8-12 hrs if it comes at all.

If it lasts half that long we’ll be doing good. I’ll put money that this will be a 12 hour deal at most, if it even comes to fruition? Always move quicker than we think. No way 24 hours long imo.

The big solution is always exhilarating to see...but when your area is in the crushed zone at 5 days out..ya that’s not always the best thing, cuz you know it’s not gonna hold that look for 5 days.

I understand..it's all good.

A tad west of the BM works perfectly for my locale, and Bergs as well....far Western CT and Mass then under LI is better for them. I was speaking for my area is what I meant.

Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic.

Could be anything. Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals? Could be, Could be. Could be? I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners. If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse. Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too. With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance.

Seems to still do it at times. Any one of these SW's can mess up this whole set up...and the final outcome could be nothing like what we have seen so far. This may potentially turn out to be nothing like what we've been seeing so far. This is so far from being figured out...??

Too many pigs fighting in the same feed-sack. All those SW's have to sort themselves out, and hopefully not rob all the energy available for our potential system?

Bottom line here, at least we have something to track and watch that has "Some Potential" for SNE currently. It's a complicated/convoluted set up with all the Short-Waves floating around, and how all that comes to together/gets resolved will obviously determine what ultimately happens with this potential system, and how it affects the area. Late Blooming is definitely a possibility, but I wouldn't be worrying about that 6 days out...to much time left to go, where all options are still on the table. No option is more likely than any other at this lead time imo.