WinterWolf

You didn’t like the last one either…until it kept trending every run north at this time last week.

Everyone’s in the game to be honest…if this shifts a 100 miles west, it’s game on for everybody. That’s an easy lift at 4 days out. But as I said yesterday, the OTS idea is the bigger problem, not occlusion.

He’s still struggling….even after getting 20 inches.

didn’t 18z Euro improve?

Close enough So we can all get a bomb…that’s what we all want.

Fair enough. But OTS is the bigger concern imo. And has been since this started looking like dog shit up here.

Yup…it’s on life support.

OTS is where I feel it’s headed…has the look of escaping east to me. Carolina and Virginia crusher..what a year for them.

You mean toss the euro? Or it shows it OTS?

Well it was something…let’s keep ticking it. Let’s see what the EPS says.

It was about the time last week that everything started trending north for this past storm. Obviously a much different set up, but the point is that we need to see some movement North and west (besides the GFS/AIGFS) at least by ensembles later tonight into tomorrow. Doesn’t have to be huge…but something. And not the other way around.

Did it come west at all?

Not good for us here…but we’ll see?

Definitely more tucked in…but very far south.

Huh? Shouldn’t that be the other way around? I’d want it closer to Nantucket than Bermuda.

OTS is the much bigger concern for us imo.

Agree. But it’s got to get close enough to us to matter at all. That’s more my concern. Definitely an explosive set up…just don’t want to see the Carolina’s and Virginia and the Delmarva get buried, and have the sun out here. That would really suck.

I don’t think anybody called it dead…except the guy in Taunton maybe, but that’s the same with him in every system. I said I was more concerned with the slide east OTS…but hope I’m wrong. It’s certainly far from dead. If the Euro ticks back west, then it’ll really help the cause.

IMO the OTS idea is the bigger concern…she wants to slide SE at the moment. Obviously that could change being where we are in lead time…but the vast bulk of modeling today is SE currently.

That was the virga storm here..snowed for hrs and hrs aloft here, but never reached the ground. Lost a ton of precip to dry air inland here. Southeast CT crushed it cuz they saturated super quick and snowed to beat the band.

Every system is different obviously, was just referencing that that was progged to stay south vin its preceding approach too. My gut tells me this goes OTS..but I hope I’m wrong.

The 96 January blizzard…was a southern storm in the beginning too, that started to gain latitude later in the game…hoping this can follow that idea.

No doubt it’s a great looking set up…at least as it currently stands, but we all know these little things change as the said timeframe approaches, and that’s where the uncertainty lies. Hopefully they change slightly in our favor.

That ridge out west(with its apex over the chimney of Idaho) in that depiction is in a perfect spot…we like to see that. Hopefully it can get up here, and not slip OTS.

That’s not how this works unfortunately. You see, when the Pope hates a set up, and tells everybody that it will never work etc etc..like he just did with this past one, that’s when we get the storm. When he’s pumped like he is now, it’s pretty much a gonner. We’ve even it many times sadly. So the only plus we have going right now, is that it’s still 5 days away. But the pope being giddy is a bad sign for sure. But maybe he proves his track record wrong(finds the nut) with this one. But it’s not a good sign at all.