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LakeEffectKing

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by LakeEffectKing

  1. Well, in general,, this is a 1 foot storm for all...give or take a few inches, except south of Ontario a half foot more..(Dave will eat an extra edible or two!), and I'm on a razor's edge to a sleet fest in Caz. Hoping for a tick back SE for 00z guidance. But mark my words, the Lake effect behind the 2nd system could be epic for few of our members.
  2. RGEM is delicious!!! Tight for me, but perfect for everyone else.
  3. If there is ambient moisture around, the frictional convergence mechanisms with a frozen lake, (with still some 10 -20% unfrozen) along with orographic lifting, can still drop some significant snows.
  4. Huge LES potential depicted on GFS SE of Ontario after #2 storm...and Goofus very rarely shows LES with such detail..Fri night. through Sunday morn.
  5. The LES potential for Tues. evening for areas near SYR, looks pretty good, for a 6-12hr. period. And after Thursday/Thursday night's storm even better, for 24 or so hrs! Tues eve.: Fri. Morn.:
  6. 1st call through 06z Wed (includes a bit of LES Wed eve.) BUF: 11" ROC: 20" SYR: 14" BGM: 8"
  7. There will be periods of time when snows harder than 1" per hour,
  8. Yeah, #2, I'd hedge towards the euro though.... The GFS over the last few runs has ticked eastward.
  9. I am pretty sure we're locked and loaded in CNY/WNY. IMO, we shouldn't have any last minute surprises that the models don't see. It's not like we have a rip-roaring slp nor any deep h850 low that could pull last minute shenanigans. It's really just a settling of the baroclinic zone within the models.
  10. Here's how I'd estimate the ratios to be across the Area: BUF: 12:1 - 16:1 ROC: 13:1 - 18:1 (Depending on enhancement) SYR: 11:1 - 15:1 ALB: 9:1 - 11:1 BOS: 0:1 NYC: 0:1
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