LakeEffectKing

Good luck Western New York crew! The rest of us will have our turn very soon.. Is verification exceed your expectations!

On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall. I still believe there will be A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+. Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug.

Not really...there is a lot of new data that goes into the "off hour" runs...satellite, bouy, ship, etc....just not balloons...

06z Canadian shifted west considerably..

Big change!

Last two runs...wave off coast is much weaker....which is good...let's see if something has been incorporated into the entire 00z suite.

9 degrees in Caz. Picked up an inch last night/this morning... Maybe the models forgot how to incorporate radiational cooling into their outputs.. Still thinking Buffalo metro will see over a foot... And probably some jackpots of near 2'.

Definitely hints at the upslope potential.... I would not be surprised to see a double band structure off of lake Ontario with the Southern one being weaker.... And near you.

This should be an excellent setup.

Total snowfall in Caz... 0 point 0

Jamison?

Do we dare?

There really is no hope. It seems to me that the GFS is just an unstable model, especially with fast flow setups....even at T+60.

An old professor of mine back in the eighties, once told me that when the northern hemispheric H500 pattern looks like Africa, it's a nice active, cold and stable pattern for the NE..... .....I give you Africa in 2 weeks.

Superfast flow in the northern jet is causing the models to flop around... Along with lots of small short waves embedded in the flow.

Looks like radar returns are out pacing the nam's model output...

@150...euro looks improved from 00z

GGEM goes ape sh!t with that second wave next week. 930mb would break some sort of record in N. Atlantic (at that latitude) for non tropical system.

Merry Christmas all! My 3 and 1/2 inches of snow from yesterday came and went as quick as Santa.

Final event total....3.25"....can it last til tomorrow @ 1200'??? We shall see! 19" on the season....:/

Wrapping up with a bang! 2.75" I'm located right on the yellow returns.

Not really...might be throwing a touch of added moisture to the lower levels...

Ripping in Caz.....2" and counting...

Connections being made.

All snow in Cazenovia..for now....probably for another hour before mixing....started 45 min. ago.