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Math/Met

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  1. Math/Met
    I'm a little late posting this. This is a picture from the Greeneville Sun newspaper. The roof was blown off a double wide mobile home in southern Greene County (Camp Creek area).
  2. Math/Met
    Just noticed that as well.
  3. Math/Met
    Just to follow up on this. I haven't looked to see how bad it was in other areas, but I don't really consider 78mph to be a particularly strong mountain wave event for Camp Creek. This type of system (the evolution and orientation of the LLJ)has underperformed several times at CC in my years of studying them. That's why I was kind of reluctant to go all in on a high end event. Still a decent mountain wave event though.
  4. Math/Met
    It looks like Camp Creek has gusted to 78mph so far.
  5. Math/Met
    Regarding the mountain wave event, the 18z 3km NAM is about as impressive as you will see in regards to the strength and location of the LLJ by tomorrow morning. Greene Co schools are closed tomorrow due to the wind forecast. That's probably a good decision. You don't want buses on the road in southern Greene County with such a high ceiling to this wind event. I still think there are a few potential limiting factors (as I mentioned previously), but there's likely to be a few hours of possibly damaging winds in the favored locations.
  6. Math/Met
    There is potential for a significant wind event. Fountainguy's post above illustrates that. It's really a matter of how far north the strongest core of the LLJ gets. Initially, the LLJ builds in from the south and the 850mb flow is more SE across the mountains. In my experience, mountain waves can be slow to establish is this scenario. There's often too much low level lift in this scenario, so parcels don't really oscillate in a wave manner. Once the LLJ gets far enough north, the flow at 850mb veers slightly, to a more traditional direction, and the overall atmospheric profile improves for mountain waves. The 00z NAM would probably be the most significant outcome. It produces a few hour window of a VERY strong wind event, because it lifts the strongest LLJ winds pretty far north and gets the 70+ kt 850mb winds to the north of the mountains. The 18z Euro is less aggressive with bringing the 70+ kt portion of the LLJ this far north. It would still produce some strong winds but probably not a high end MW event. So the potential is there for a relatively brief high end event, but my confidence for the severity is lower than normal due to the reasons above. I'll be watching future model runs for how the LLJ evolves.
  7. Math/Met
    Terrible situation. I hope short range models are wrong, because they try to really increase wind gusts near that area over the next few hours. I'm hoping there's some limiting factor that keeps the higher end mountain waves winds from materializing.
  8. Math/Met
    The winds are starting to pick up in that area. Cove Mountain is now up to 74mph.
  9. Math/Met
    Unfortunately, winds will likely increase significantly in that area this evening. This particular setup actually favors that area for very high winds, especially in the Cove Mountain area. MRX
  10. Math/Met
    I think you are correct about this. It wasn’t downslope in my opinion (at least not in my area). Some models had a hint of a meso- low on this side of the mountains. It wasn’t much, but even a short lull can make a significant difference when rates are high.
  11. Math/Met
    I’ve been fortunate with these snow bands in the last hour. Picked up an inch in the last hour. Up to 4 total. Still snowing very hard at the moment.
  12. Math/Met
    I saw this on Twitter. I didn't go out there today, so I'm glad someone got some obs from the school since the tower isn't working.
  13. Math/Met
    Latest update. 83mph at Cove Mountain 70mph at Camp Creek.
  14. Math/Met
    There's been a 64mph gust so far today in Camp Creek and a 78mph gust on Cove Mountain, so high winds are already verifying in the warning areas. The best opportunity for this mountain wave event is probably after 4:00pm today into early evening, as the LLJ increases over the mountains, 850mb flow backs slightly over WNC, and loss of daytime heating. Thermal profiles aren't ideal, but the amount of wind energy still provides plenty of the potential.
  15. Math/Met
    There have been a few personal weather stations reporting gusts over 60mph in southern Greene Co earlier today. There is probably bit of a lull right now (typical afternoon lull), but conditions likely become more favorable again tonight and continuing tomorrow. Very strong LLJ with this system. Still think it has potential to create some high end MW gusts in the usual areas. Unfortunately, I don't think the NOAA tower data for Camp Creek is reliable right now. I have suspected that for a year or two. Seems to be recording wind gusts too low. Because of the tower height and open field at the base of the mountain, it has always recorded higher than other stations in the area. That changed over the past year or two. I kind of confirmed that for myself last event. I went out there, and the tower only record gusts in the 50s while I was there. It felt significantly stronger than 50mph while I was there. Other weather stations recorded 60-70mph around that same time, which seems more in line with my estimates. I have a pretty good idea what a 70mph gust should feel like at this point, so the NOAA tower only recording in the 50s just didn't seem correct. I can't say for certain if it's always unreliable, but I'll probably have to rely on PWS's for wind data in the area.
  16. Math/Met
    Several gusts in the 50-65mph range on weather stations in the Camp Creek/Greystone area of Greene County.
  17. Math/Met
    I'm posting this more from a scientific standpoint because impacts should be minimal. Even though the LLJ isn't strong tonight (only in the 30 to 40kt range at 850mb over the mountains before 12z), conditions on forecast soundings are almost ideal for mountain waves late tonight and tomorrow morning. This would be a turn nothing into something scenario. Just interested to see how windy it can get with relatively weak cross barrier winds. I'll update with obs if it materializes. Thursday still looks like a major event. The stronger LLJ events like Thursday tend to hit the Smoky Mts pretty good too, in addition to Camp Creek.
  18. Math/Met
    Just wanted to mention that the mountain wave event for Thursday is looking very impressive. The 850mb wind chart is what you'd expect for a damaging wind event in the typical mountain wave areas. There are obviously other factors in these events (850mb wind speed and cross barrier wind direction only explain about 50% of the variability in MW wind gusts at Camp Creek), but this has many characteristics of a very strong wind storm along the mountains and foothills.
  19. Math/Met
    I had a nice band of snow move through earlier this evening. Still have very light snow falling at the moment. It was enough to give me a dusting of snow on the grass and cars.
  20. Math/Met
    Cove Mountain recorded a 74mph gust. I saw one gust at 64.4mph on a weather station in Camp Creek. That isn't overly impressive for either location but worth mentioning. Edit: Just found a 76.7mph gust at Camp Creek on another personal weather station.
  21. Math/Met
    Winds have been kept in check so far at CC with the area of rain moving through. That might actually contribute to more favorable conditions for mountain waves (more stable due to precip) this afternoon and evening as the LLJ strengthens and with a break in precip. There seems to be a window today when things could really get going. I think MRX issuing the High Wind Warning was the right call.
  22. Math/Met
    There are definitely breezy days outside of the true mountain wave events...anytime the flow is off the mountains. But it's not constantly windy there. They actually put in a temporary 135ft wind tower over a decade ago to study the potential for wind energy. Nothing ever came from that. Camp Creek gets all the attention because of the NOAA wind tower, but all of southern Greene County is very windy. That whole area is perfectly positioned at the base of the mountains with the French Broad Valley on the other side helping to funnel the southeasterly winds. South Greene HS is not in the Camp Creek community, and that school has been damaged several times by mountain wave winds. As far southwest in the county as the St. James community has really strong winds too.
  23. Math/Met
    Winds did pick up again late this afternoon before the stronger winds at 850mb pulled away. The peak gust today was 61mph. I normally wouldn't even bother with mentioning a 61mph gust at Camp Creek, but it's been awhile since there's been a wind event. Tomorrow is tricky from a forecast standpoint. The LLJ is projected to be much closer to the mountains and strong tomorrow afternoon. The 3km NAM has 850mb winds 65+knots in parts of EAST TN. The problem is the orientation of the flow. It is close to being too much of a SW direction. You don't need 850mb winds to be SE for mountain wave events. In fact, most events have 850mb flow from due south or slightly SSW (winds below mountain tops have to be southeasterly to establish orthogonal flow). However, the 850mb winds tomorrow could be slightly outside of that threshold. It will be very close. The wind energy is certainly there for High Wind Warning type situation, IF the 850mb flow isn't too much from the SW. It is really close as currently modeled.
  24. Math/Met
    Camp Creek has recorded a gust around 58mph so far. The HRRR suggests it could go a little higher later this afternoon and evening. The flow gets a little stronger over the mountains, and the atmosphere generally becomes more conducive for mountain waves in the evening versus daytime.
  25. Math/Met
    It still looks like there will be a prolonged wind event along the mountains and foothills. Winds will begin to pick up tomorrow in the typical areas. The LLJ tomorrow is approaching 65 kts into Middle TN and Kentucky on some models. The flow directly over the mountains is weaker, but still enough to produce strong gusts with the direction of the cross-barrier flow being favorable Models redevelop and lift the core of the LLJ just far enough north on Thursday to continue the mountain wave threat. Some models have been less aggressive bringing the LLJ that far north, and possibly with a more SW direction. So still a few uncertainties. Either way, this is probably the best mountain wave setup so far this winter(very slow year for mw's). It's not a textbook MW setup, but I think there will still be some decent gusts. Depending on how it develops, I might make a trip to Camp Creek in the next two days.
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