Poimen
-
Posts
2,148 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Poimen
-
The 6Z GFS is a classic Miller A snow storm for the Carolinas. It begins with a good thump of snow for many, narrowing to the favored areas as the storm makes its closest approach...becoming mainly a snow vs. rain event, with little ice. The soundings for the Triad are all snow soundings through the storm (perhaps some sleet around 18Z Sunday)...thus the high totals.
-
The 0Z FV 3 and 6Z GFS were great runs for the NC Piedmont.
-
Big picture: I think there is strong confidence in a solid front-end thump for a good portion of the NC Piedmont Saturday night/Sunday morning, transitioning to mixed p-types during the day Sunday. All in all, confidence seems high right now in a significant winter storm that will feature heavy wet snow, sleet, perhaps freezing rain and then plain rain for some. Regardless of the totals, this should be a good way to kick off the winter.
-
In other news, the Canadian says "Don't sleep on that backside deform band."
-
Sitting here looking at 7-10" amounts from the GFS for the Triad and felt lousy for a second, then I realized that 7-10" is a really good storm. lol.
-
GGEM is tracking close to the previous EURO..a shift for this model. I see a trend here...and it's a good one.
-
ICON with a favorable track off the SE coast with snows for the Piedmont.
-
The NAM finishes with an impressive 1041 mb HP over IL at hour 84. sub zero 850 temps well into SC and dew points into the teens in northern NC.
-
at HR 63 on the NAM, HP over Iowa is 1040 MB. That's the strongest I've seen it modeled.
-
FV 3 Kuchera through 0Z Mon.
-
18Z FV 3 is a crush job for western NC. Much better track this run, farther from the coast. Clowns should be fun.
-
Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. Just something interesting to me.
-
I thought so, too. But it matches with the Kuchera map from Pivotal.
-
I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:
-
Kuchera output on pivotal weather has ~20" around the Triad, FWIW.
-
Here comes the backside blizzard!
-
Here you go: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
-
Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC.
-
With the Pineapple Express in tow!
-
FWIW: The NAVGEM looks a lot like the EURO. SLP track across the FL Panhandle before making the turn NE and off the Carolina coast. Like the EURO, precip doesn't make it to NC until Sunday morning.
-
It's track is faster/farther west than the others..hence the difference.
-
12"-15" mean for all of the western Piedmont ain't nothing to sneeze at.
-
-
GFS Kuchera: 21"-36" amounts for the NW Piedmont/Foothills/Mountains. Wow.
-
The GFS soundings for the Triad area are pure snow soundings from the onset through mid-day Sunday, with surface temps falling into the upper twenties. By 18Z Sunday, it's a mixed bag sounding...maybe even plain rain, but by then plenty of snow has fallen.
