Poimen
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Everything posted by Poimen
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The NAM is better than previous runs but it does have a pronounced warm nose coming through at 700 mb. It looks like the warm nose affects areas from Charlotte to RDU and points just south of 85 in the Triad. HRRR has the same warm nose, but less pronounced and stays well south. Also of interest is the 9Z GSO SREF. Snowfall mean jumped to 10" and total qpf mean around 2." Altogether an encouraging run of models so far for many of us.
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How does the HRRR compare to other Hi-Res models, specifically in regards to thermals? Edit: @griteater just answered above lol
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6Z FV3; GFS; ICON. Of the three, the ICON is most encouraging to me. It had it's best run yet for the Piedmont.
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The NAM/RGEM concerns me for the NW Piedmont portion of this forecast. But we shall see:
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The NAM soundings indicate the problem may be a loss of saturation in the snow growth zone more than a warm nose. Either way, this is pause for concern.
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Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad.
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The ICON:
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FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS.
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You know it's a good night when the worst model runs only give you 10".
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Without soundings it's hard to know what's going on. Maybe it's an issue with the program indicating sleet when it's actually a snow sounding? I mean it was showing sleet on the maps even over the mountains and we know that's not the case. It still has 8-11" in our neck of the woods.
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But then again...according to the PW site, the RGEM is a sleet storm for the mountains, too. Perhaps that answers my original question?
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Should the RGEM concern us? It's basically a sleet storm for even the Triad. I seem to recall that it has performed well in the past.
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It's supposed to be.
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Not to be out done is the 12K NAM:
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I noticed the SREF QPF mean at GSO was 2" at 21Z.
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It's at www.weathernerds.org (I just discovered it this week myself). It's a great free site.
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The NAMs brought the goods tonight. Gotta love the way the qpf is trending at this time. Here's the 3K Kuchera:
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18Z GFS below. I'm out until 0Z. My orphaned family is begging for my attention. lol. See y'all later.
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They looked about the same from what I could tell on the NCEP maps.
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FV3 is going to be just like previous runs Here's the total qpf from the 18Z run. Nearing 2" in the Triad this time:
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I just figured out that you can zoom in even closer on these www.weathernerds.org maps. Here's a super close-up of the counties in and around the Triad from the 3k NAM:
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Close up of 3k NAM Kuchera:
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It's a beaut, Clark!
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FV 3 Hours 42, 48, 54, 60:
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GFS Kuchera:
