Poimen

Here are the last three runs of the SREF:

For what it's worth: the 9Z SREF run has a noticeable uptick in qpf for much of the area. In fact, the snow plumes for K.C. jumped to a mean of 5" at 9Z. The mean was 1.5" in the previous run. This should result in a noticeable uptick in qpf for the 12Z suite of NAMs. We'll see.

According to the afternoon AFD, the Topeka office is forecasting 20:1 ratios.

Here's the 10:1 snowfall output from the 12Z EC. These were higher than I thought it would be. I suppose we can expect ratios greater than 10:1--but I've lived my whole life in the south where 8:1 ratios are the going rate. I've never seen soundings like the one's I'm looking at now.

I've been loosely tracking the GFS Kuchera totals for my backyard. It just went from 17-20" in the prior runs to 5" on the 12Z. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy with 5" of snow, but the trend this morning seems to be a quicker and less amped system for this area. Still plenty of time for things to change.

Hey guys. I recently relocated from North Carolina to the Northland of K.C. (MO). I'm looking forward to experiencing my first midwest winter storm (hopefully). Thanks for all the info here.

Keep in mind that the "precip" on the map is the accumulated precip during the previous 6 hours. That sounding is so dry that the only flakes flying will be the dandruff from my head. Probably whatever precip fell from the sky did so many hours before this sounding.

Your calendar may be good, but your eyes or reading comprehension may need to be checked, old-timer. It did say, "in reverse order." Good luck though!

Here's a comparison between the day 10 EC/FV 3. Both have a similar look with regards to the developing -AO/+PNA. This is very positive, in my opinion.

Yeah, it's in la-la land, but here's a look at the 12Z FV 3 near the end of the run. We're beginning to see this type of look more consistently in the longer range.

It's interesting to compare this year with last year. Last January we experienced record cold/snow in the first half of January, only to flip to extreme torch in February. This year is shaping up to do the same but in reverse order.

Much closer than day 16 is the day 10 EC, which has higher heights developing over AK and east of Greenland. So although it remains torchy down here the next two weeks; the pattern shift just may be on track.

I understand the sentiment but this is the precise evolution that the experts are predicting. At some point we’re going to need to see this look showing up consistently in the LR. Hopefully it starts now.

Here we go...this look over the top is what we're looking for in general to flip the pattern. Now, can we reel it in from 16 days?