Poimen
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18Z EC is a beast of a storm. The FZRA potential is something to keep an eye one.
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Here are the last three runs of the SREF:
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For what it's worth: the 9Z SREF run has a noticeable uptick in qpf for much of the area. In fact, the snow plumes for K.C. jumped to a mean of 5" at 9Z. The mean was 1.5" in the previous run. This should result in a noticeable uptick in qpf for the 12Z suite of NAMs. We'll see.
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According to the afternoon AFD, the Topeka office is forecasting 20:1 ratios.
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Here's the 10:1 snowfall output from the 12Z EC. These were higher than I thought it would be. I suppose we can expect ratios greater than 10:1--but I've lived my whole life in the south where 8:1 ratios are the going rate. I've never seen soundings like the one's I'm looking at now.
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I've been loosely tracking the GFS Kuchera totals for my backyard. It just went from 17-20" in the prior runs to 5" on the 12Z. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy with 5" of snow, but the trend this morning seems to be a quicker and less amped system for this area. Still plenty of time for things to change.
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Hey guys. I recently relocated from North Carolina to the Northland of K.C. (MO). I'm looking forward to experiencing my first midwest winter storm (hopefully). Thanks for all the info here.
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I never thought I'd consider sowing fescue in late December, but it is tempting right now...
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@lilj4425
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Another 2" qpf run for the RAP with 18" snow totals in the Triad. HRRR isn't far behind.
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2” per hour rates in the Triad at 9am per the HRRR
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The 22Z RAP has 2" qpf amounts just south of the Triad and 17" snow totals in the Triad.
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RAH doubling down in the Triad
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Holy crap GFS. 1.8" QPF here by tomorrow afternoon.
