Spartman

Might as well be in some kind of blocking pattern at this rate. Very few, if any, dry days to come by over the next couple of weeks. May 2003 all over again. May 2003 had a record 21 days with measurable rainfall.

6-10 day: 8-14 day:

86 here. A prolonged active stretch begins today, so the upcoming week will be a wash.

Nothing today

Topped out at 84

This was the 2nd completely dry weekend for 2024.

Same here

It looks like at least the first half of this month will be a washout. #april2011redux

White on that map JB posted actually represents completely overcast. Euro is caving to the GFS.

Euro according to JB:

NWS really got hijacked by trolls on social media over that.

TWC:

Accuweather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/solar-eclipse-2024/total-solar-eclipse-cloud-forecast-where-will-clouds-spoil-the-show/1636042

NWS IND .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 It is now about a week out from eclipse day and as stated in previous iterations of this discussion, a few signals can be deciphered from long range guidance. As mentioned in the discussion above, a deepening/occluding low pressure system is anticipated to develop over the eastern US. As this low deepens, it should act to bottle up the upstream wave pattern. This can be seen in guidance as a deepening trough over the western US. It`s this trough that could be the determining factor as to what kind of weather we see on Monday April 8th. Taking a step back, global teleconnections show strongly negative phases in both the NAO and AO. This means that the synoptic scale will dictate our weather going forward, and with a very strong and occluded low over the east coast...it is likely that the position and longevity of this system will determine the evolution of the west coast trough. Latest ensemble guidance depicts both the eastern and western troughs becoming highly amplified with an increasingly squeezed ridge in between. A flow pattern similar to a classic omega block looks to take shape by Friday. With strongly negative teleconnections, a pattern featuring blocking is not a surprise. Guidance begins to diverge over the weekend as models struggle to depict how the aforementioned features interact within the bottled up flow. Guidance typically struggles in blocking patterns, and can be too fast with synoptic-scale features. This can be seen in recent trends with today`s system that has been gradually shifting westward with time. It`s tough to downscale this pattern into a cloud cover forecast for the 8th. The primary questions are how much does the occluded east coast low affect the upstream pattern, and in what form the western trough ejects eastward. As guidance comes into greater consensus, the answers to these questions will likewise come into focus. Stay tuned for further updates. Might as well stick a fork in seeing the eclipse on Monday

00z GFS:

Only got 0.02" of rain tonight. This March ends up with below-normal rainfall for the month, but April looks to be a different story. Also a warm March, but not warm enough to be one of the top 10 warmest.

It'll be mild for the first couple of days before chilly temperatures return for the rest of the week, despite a wet start to the month. Other than that, it looks like a pretty dreary stretch until the pattern breaks.

Shades of '11

NWS IND: .CLIMATE... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 The eclipse is now 10 days away, and we`re starting to pick up on a few long range signals. At 10 days out, there is still a lot of ambiguity and uncertainty in the forecast, but given a few consistent signals, a few assertions can be made. Let`s start off with the 2-4 day outlook and how it will impact April 8th. As mentioned previously, a deep trough is developing over the Eastern Pacific, and will pass through the Midwest early next week. The associated low pressure system is expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic region late next week, and should subsequently rapidly deepen as it interacts with increased coastal moisture. A upper level system over Canada is also expected to merge, further amplifying the East Coast trough/low. Given a strongly negative NAO and PNA, synoptic scale influence should dictate the pattern, and the rapidly deepening low pressure system should "bottle-up" the upstream waves. This can be visualized by a relatively tight Mountain-West ridge in the GEFS 500mb height spaghetti plot around 140-200 hours from initialization. Many ensembles are subsequently picking up on a Rex block type pattern over the CONUS next weekend as we approach eclipse day. As stated, there is still some uncertainty on where this blocking pattern will be positioned, but typically, long range models are too progressive with Rex blocks, leading to the current belief that downstream ridging will be present over the Ohio Valley by eclipse day. It`s difficult to downscale this synoptic pattern into a specific cloud forecast for April 8th, but we will continue to monitor pattern signals/consistency and update as needed.

Only reached 48, temps significantly underperformed with the afternoon cloud cover and "warm" air advection. NWS ILN seems to treating it like it was one of the most siginificant underperformances ever. Daytime highs today underperformed thanks to northerly flow and decent cloud cover. Therefore, temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s across the region at the time of this writing. Overnight lows fall to the mid/low 30s across the region, but by the time subfreezing thermal profiles arrive, precipitation will have tapered off for the most part. Therefore, not anticipating anything other than a cold rain and possibly a brief rain/snow mix for some isolated areas.

Ji bringing up March 1958 in the Mid Atlantic forum

Suicide weather today. It's looking wet Friday into Saturday. Either way, we're in for quite a prolonged overcast stretch through the weekend. Dreading this month will be dealing with a hangover from the very cloudy January many of us had earlier this year.