Spartman

ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night. The front will not make it all of the way through the area until Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the area. With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week. With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the region dry. Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the area, then temperatures will rebound early next week. 06z GFS: 00z Euro:

Suicide weather yesterday, it returns tomorrow. TWC/Wunderground now says it might as well include some rain if they have maintained overcast skies for tomorrow over the past several days. So much for the 1st dry weekend of Spring 2025. Normally we would have at least one dry weekend or two every Spring, but I feel that this is just not going to be our year. Even wet springs like 2011 had some dry weekends. The last time it rained literally EVERY SINGLE WEEKEND the entire Spring was in 2019.

https://x.com/indywx/status/1910651175004737801

Probably going to be a head fake. Doesn't look like any sustained warmth for the remainder of the month.

Below normal temperatures every single day for this upcoming week through Saturday. Tonight A chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 11pm and midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northeast wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Monday Increasing clouds, with a high near 55. Light west wind increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the morning. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 43. Northwest wind around 11 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Wednesday A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Showers. High near 56. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 57. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Yesterday's soaker: 000 SXUS71 KILN 060536 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 0134 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2025 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.65 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH (KDAY) ON SATURDAY, APRIL 5. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD FOR THE SITE OF 1.37 INCHES SET IN 1936. $$

Definitely going to be a long crappy 1st weekend of April, for sure

000 SXUS71 KILN 030642 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 0239 AM EDT THU APR 03 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1963. $$ First 80-degree of the year yesterday

06z NAM not as wet as the 00z Euro or 06z GFS: If only the upcoming system was a winter storm instead.....

BAM still on board with an April 2011 redux over the next several days https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1907055895877652665

Models and even NBM had the high rainfall amounts locked in for the past several days, if not at least a week.

April kicks off on a chilly note on April Fool's Day, but we're going to a warm, but very wet stretch the day after that will last through the first weekend of the month. A stretch so wet that many places could risk making it to the top 10 wettest Aprils ever during the first days of the month right before we start dealing with the effects of the March SSW the week after. Models have actually had such a wet start to the month zeroed in for the past several days. GFS 18z: Euro 12z: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904243702932918584

JB considering this upcoming outbreak as part of the "busiest period" since 2011 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1906358608062788036

With all that cloud cover around the entire weekend, that could actually limit severe weather for Sunday.

That plus rain, storms, and cloud cover throughout the region. Going to be a crappy final weekend of March.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/page/254/#comments From the 2024-2025 La Nina thread: This April's expected to have a very wet start to the month, but supposed to start feeling the effects of the recent Stratospheric warming by the 1st full week of April

https://x.com/indywx/status/1905231109006188598 We are REALLY REALLY pushing for a 2011 redux this Spring...and perhaps 2025 this year altogether. Heading into April, not good if you're looking for sustained Spring warmth

Going to be garbage over the next 1-2 weeks

Garbage pattern over the next 1-2 weeks. Looking so bad into April, we might as well get a blocking pattern by then. BAM brings up Aprils 2001, 2011, and 2012 as his analogs, but April 2011 looks to be the most fitting one since that April was one of the wettest ever. Looks like it'll be active/wet through at least a good portion of the upcoming summer, as well.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904243702932918584 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904245132657934438

Shades of '11

Today's CFSv2 Weeks 3-4:

000 SXUS71 KILN 150533 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 0127 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS TIED AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 78 DEGREES SET IN 1990.