Spartman

Weather Underground/TWC and GFS want the 4th of July to be a total washout. Either way, not going to be a good night for fireworks.

Only got 0.08"

Going to be a suckfest today with all the cloud cover and upcoming storms

Looking stormy for the 4th of July now

Heat wave over. 89'd today

TWC's bullish on the cloud cover for Tuesday and Wednesday. If there's going to be a lack of sunshine of those couple of days, they might as well lower their highs.

12z GFS for next Saturday:

If a cold summer followed an El Nino winter (which doesn't happen often like 1992), then expect the upcoming winter to be either Neutral or a 2nd-year Niño.

Ending up with below-normal rainfall for the month, despite 15 days with measurable rainfall for May. Definitely in for a crappy weekend to start June tomorrow.

https://www.x.com/commoditywx/status/1796588170747969744

If that really happens

The first half of the month looks to be dominated by troughing and possibly blocking. GFS also hinting a cutoff low starting around the middle of next week. NAO, PNA, AO looking bad for the next couple of weeks. NAO: PNA: AO:

Maybe start trending toward Neutrals. Feeling this is just not the year for a Nina. Today's Nino 3.4 chart seems to be off the wall.

From the Mid-Atlantic sub: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60238-may-medium-long-range-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=7310446 Models have a cooler start to June with -NAO trying to develop.. If the ridge over the Davis Strait ends up verifying, that would be good for my N. Atlantic SST prediction of wintertime NAO state, but still a long ways to go (the index measures through September.) I also think a ridge is going to try to develop over the West coast through June, then it may work its way to the Midwest by July and August then the east by the end of the Summer.. there is a chance it could come here sooner though, but GEFS looks troughy through Day 15.. June's looking like a write-off

Looks cooler than normal for the final few days of the month.

Got 0.60" from the first round this afternoon. Get ready for at least an additional inch of rain from the 2nd round as it slowly passes through. Today is now the 5th Anniversary of the 2019 Memorial Day tornado outbreak.

Cold summers following El Niño winters are just very rare like 1992 (due to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), 2003, 1969, or 1958. None of those cold summers after El Niño winters were followed by a La Niña winter. Each of those cold summers were either followed by a Neutral winter or a 2nd-year El Niño winter.

Around the 5th Anniversary of the Memorial Day tornadoes

TWC's calling for a high of 72 for Memorial Day. Want a bad Memorial Day? Go back to Memorial Day 1996 when temps were in the 50's all day.

Rainfall is overperforming. Daily total so far is 0.93" as of 9am. Record is 2.20" in 1974. Might as well get at least 2 inches today.

Or else, 2024-25 would end up as Neutral instead of a Niña.

Today turned out to be what seems to be the sunniest day for the month.

Time to stick a fork in May?