dilly84
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Everything posted by dilly84
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Yea that's that fv3 I asked buckeye about. I dont know the accuracy
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What do you know about this fv3 model? It's been great for us today.
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A little, still doesn't give us much more than 2" of snow.
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So far we're 0-2. 0z Nam and 0z HRRR both no good.
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Perfect low placement though.
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Nam looking even worse than 18z early on. When do we start taking it seriously?
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I don't even go read the other thread because of it lol. I just stay here like I have for 16 years lol
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Don't remind me. My little page of 600 followers gave me all kinds of hell and I'm not even a met lol. I had to explain what I'm explaining now, that these south to north type systems are hard to predict the day of let alone 2 days out. But everyone was wrong with it, so I didn't feel bad lol
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Guess the positive is that outside of southeast Ohio it appears freezing rain may not be as big of an issue
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Brings the low right through se ohio. Lol. That'd be our luck. It says no snow and no freezing rain, you'll take your sleet and like it.
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Nam is a sleetfest on not on round 1, but also round 2. Just not buying that. Not at all.
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Yep. Sticking to its 12z. No further south. This is why I hate Southern forming winter systems. Too hard to forecast and a difference of 10 miles makes all the difference. Hrrr sucked too unless you're north of 71.
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I wouldn't worry yourself with totals as I think it'll be at least 8" or more. This is a pick your poison type ordeal. Get a foot or risk getting zr
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We are 48hrs out from the start. I wanna see the cmc cave.
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Agree. Now if euro looks like Canadian, we could have an issue. I'm hoping it comes back to its solution from a couple days ago as it was more in line with the gfs.
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There is, really. Canadian decided to become an outlier today. Ukie still looks good
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Guess it's gonna be gfs vs cmc. It's a whiff for almost everyone.
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Idk how reliable it is, it's a short range hi res model, but I've not followed it a bunch. I just loved the way the system looked on that run.
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Fv3 looks crushing.
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Agree. Kinda odd it didn't really show up on the clown maps. Looks more like a 10 mile shift on there but other parts of the run looked pretty significant compared to 6z.
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My concern is the differences models show where the rn/sn line sets up is pretty big between them. GFS is best case but you still have the nam and rgem still pretty far north of it. Can't really see the euro, and the cmc is a bit north of the gfs as well. I'm anxiously awaiting 12z runs. Hoping nam comes in line with the gfs this run
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It's really a win for 80% of the sub forum. Think it's best case for everyone. I'm rooting for it.
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I've tried to hold in excitement since 6z runs lol. Very rare potential for us. Like a once every 20 year event. Hard to not get excited seeing the runs. Even the amount shown will be underdone in areas where the heaviest bands set up. Can see someone get some 2" an hour rates for a time with this.
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Don't want it much more se. The heavy stuff on this run is now even se of me in knox county. Maybe 30-40 miles to feel safe. Like always still concerned with a nw shift.
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Icon a tad nw. These 20 to 30 mile shifts are gonna be a pain to forecast.
