EHoffman

Your memory probably isn't correct, I've never been a solid poster. That said, I agree where you're coming from and it's certainly an intriguing event. And the globals are certainly looking awesome. I just try to factor in DC climo and try to keep in mind we've had literally every storm go to shit for us <48 hrs from game time and I'm trying to keep a level head and not get overly excited. Definitely one of those storms where I won't believe it until it's actually happening.

Ukie looks like 6" on the front end too. I still stan for the King NAM though.

Make no mistake, when we get our 5" on Thursday I'm finding where you live and throwing a snowball at you.

Day-4-land this year has been incredible for us. Would be close to our snowiest winter ever by now.

NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years.

I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?!

Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow.

I think I agree with this post but can you maybe write it in English?

Sorry bro, I'll disappear again come April

I mean yeah, it can happen for sure. But I don't think many would be happy here with 2" on grass followed by rain. They'd call it a fail, especially given the globals right now. Like this storm could totally give us an inch or two before it rains, but I'd hardly call that a win or a high-impact event. For the record I hope I'm wrong I would kill for a solid thump.

That's all I'm saying though, is that historically these types of storms fail 99% of the time in DC even if we're getting slammed a few days in advance on "all the models." Of course it's not IMPOSSIBLE we bank significantly on this, but I find it to be a major uphill battle. Ehhh no power outages and slippery pavement that melted by the next morning. Pretty? Sure. High impact? In CVA and Southern VA, absolutely. Here, not so much. I honestly think the models are too cold and we're always warmer than progged down here.

We always fail in borderline scenarios in mid-to-late February like this, yes. It's very rare we actually cash on a frozen-to-rain scenario like this. I wouldn't call 2 days ago high-impact in DC at all. In fact, we avoided high impact by being a huge heat island and not having ZR accumulate anywhere for hours when it was 29 degrees because of the sun angle. It's a good example of why it's sooooo hard for us to bank in borderline scenarios.

Yes I do think SOME of the precip will fall frozen in DC. I just don't think there will be a signficant/any impact in the city. We are always too warm, we always switch over earlier than anticipated in these types of systems, and we're always too cold on the globals at this time frame. This is how DC weather works in the winter.

Yes hence why I said "for DC." Since I live in DC. And we do very poorly with these types of scenarios, almost always. I don't doubt that somewhere north of DC will get a significant winter event from this.

Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before.

Just got in from outside for a bit. Sidewalks basically a sleety sheet of ice, my car was encased in ice, roads look icy but generally ok. Probably like .2"

Back to freezing rain mostly here, ice seems to be accruing way more easily now. Still haven't been outside but sidewalks and roads losing that wet look and getting that icy look

Ice Storm Warning now for MoCo and DC, this probably should've happened last night huh.

Lots of sleet and even some flakes mixing in now down here.

Trees starting to sag a bit here. Things definitely starting to ice up and rain still fallng steady.

I mean it's 28 degrees, it should accrete, but the sun angle/UHI this late in February is very real. Starting to hear some pingers here too, but no real accretion going on.

Trees starting to get that icy look here, but again, not outside, so maybe I'm wrong. Continues to rain steadily.

Probably more surface area for the water to sit on a cold surface as opposed to a small tree branch grappling with sun angle.

Yeah but you probably have like 60 feet of elevation on me. I'm at the bottom of the hill.

Interesting...I live on Harvard and 18th so I'm right near Mt Pleasant. Also I haven't been outside I'm just looking through my apt window so take what I say with a grain of salt. But people seem to be walking normally on sidewalks