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silly level of disagreement on snow across the GL region with less than 72 hours before things are rockin'
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Euro going gangbusters on Chicago
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I dunno, one of the best parts of winter storm tracking is the eye-watering snow totals put out by a few choice models. DGEX was always reliable for a good 36"+ somewhere in its forecast timeframe. RIP
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Really enjoyed LOT's morning AFD, gets into some of the juicy modeling stuff:
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Best part of the storm came after the front, winds strong enough to shoot up a transformer flash in the distance but that's about it
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Yeah whole part of the line is under a blanket tornado warning; kinematics must be kicking up, looks scary for the chicago metro if it holds together
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Line in northern Illinois starting to bow out.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Illinois...Far Southeast Wisconsin...Western and Central Indiana...Far Southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 96... Valid 312320Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 96 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to be maintained across WW 96 over the next few hours, and will increase later this evening as storms move into the watch from the west. New WW issuance will eventually be needed to the east and south of WW 96, from eastern Illinois into west-central Indiana southward into western and central Kentucky. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar from Chicago shows scattered strong to severe storms located from the central part of WW 96 eastward into far northern Indiana. This east-to-west corridor is located along a warm front extending east-southeastward from a 996 mb low. Rotating storms that interact with the warm front could become tornadic. Otherwise, a wind-damage and large hail threat will continue with the stronger cells along and near the front. As the exit region of a 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet approaches from the southwest early this evening, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will increase across the lower Ohio Valley. This will make conditions increasingly favorable for severe storms. In response, intense storm development will become widespread, especially as severe line segments move into the area from the west. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely with the more intense cells. The severe threat will increase to the east and south of WW 96 later this evening, necessitating WW issuance across parts of southeast Illinois into western/central Indiana and Kentucky. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2023