Maxwell03

Ida

It's a tricky forecast especially considering Milton's size and the open door for weakening near landfall. I understand where you're coming from here and think you're taking a little too much heat for it. If everything aligns perfectly, it will be an extremely impactful event. Still, someone on the Florida west coast is taking a nasty hit from this and they are not prepared to weather a storm so soon after Helene.

Yeah, throw that NS:H:MH ratio away. Five hurricane hits is an onslaught.

This went from a nothing burger to downright ominous at a rapid pace. Should note that even without a Tampa worst case surge event, Sarasota and Fort Myers aren't really well positioned to weather a big event either.

Maybe so, but you don’t have to be that old to remember the gap between Ike and Irene, plus the 2013-2015 downturn (especially 2013). And although they’ve delivered hits, these recent years have also delivered prolonged calm periods.

I’m always rooting for a nearshore recurve, or a close shave a la Earl 2010. This way we get some excitement but don’t have to get FEMA involved lol.

18Z GFS said go back to bed

I just don't understand how we do this year after year after year. Hurricanes in the Atlantic form *primarily* between mid August and mid October. The dreaded 2013 excepted, every single year of late has picked up dramatically following the July/early Aug interseasonal lull...2017, 2019, 2022 for example.

I know it’s interesting from a scientific standpoint to capture the number of named storms in a preseason forecast, but we know from experience that hurricane season is quality over quantity. Recent years have certainly demonstrated that. No doubt in my mind big ACE storms are coming, even if we don’t run down the full list of names this year.

Finally about to see some action at my place

After Beryl, a lull?

I was thinking that too. An onlooker in Suriname can probably see the cloud canopy rotating toward the east with ease.

It’s a grey zone in many definitions yes

Ditto call it a cusper because I would not attribute that speech to millennials

More like Gen Z online slang