shaggy

I just get the feeling this thing is just gonna plow wnw right into SC and never make a big enough turn as its modeled right now. If it landfalls south of Jacksonville moving wnw this will spare a large part of eastern NC but really increase the risk for central and western nc. Really need that GIV up and flying missions to get the data into the models.

Yeah hugo redux. If the euro holds it path and gfs its and they blend the 2 then sc/NC are in trouble.

I'm actually getting the feeling this one might just plow west right into SC and never make that turn. There is so e troughiness that could weaken the ridge but will it be enough?

94l sure is a surprise so maybe she will weaken that ridge.

models are in great agreement on future track. Wonder with such strong agreement and a 115knt typhoon forecast to affect Kadena if Josh is gonna chase?

Bout to have a beast out there in the wpac and most models carry it to a landfall so should be an interesting forecast coming up for them.

Us Pgv guys are getting the Raleigh screw job this go around. So 3 to 6 near Raleigh and now MHX comes out with this awesome disco for the coastal areas. Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of the Outer Banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections of Eastern NC, generally east of HWY 17. The heaviest snow will fall along the Pamlico Sound from Carteret County to Hatteras Island/mainland Hyde County. Strong dynamics, thanks to a robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over the NC coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere. Mesoscale dynamics/factors could produce locally heavier snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder.

I'm sitting in a 1 county wide WWA with WSW warnings either side of me. One side is the for the piedmonts bigger totals and the one east of me is for the coastal that gets going. I wish there was a way for this "deepening stronger cutoff" (per Raleigh NWS) to not die and lose the qpf so fast as it moves east.

I'm sitting between the two higher snowfall totals on the Rgem. There's 3-6 to my west and now 3-5 to my east as it pulls the coastal ever so closer. I had around 4.5 to 5 inches on Jan 3rd so its not life or death for my season I've already scored. Would be nice to see that low kick off 30 more miles west though and get me into those higher potential totals.

If current track holds true then la reunion will be in the path of a cat 3. Wonder how much rain they would get out of that?

So I was sitting here at work bored freezing my butt off and went to the NCDC to research the years since Irene in 2011. So here are the reported tornadoes and subsequent tropical system activity. 2012 tornadoes 12 landfalls none 2013 tornadoes 5 landfalls none 2014 tornadoes 31 landfalls Arthur 2015 tornadoes 8 landfall Ana 2016 tornadoes 12 landfall Mathew along SC coast 2017 19 landfalls none This now makes 6 out of 7 years with 30+ tornadoes with a landfall later in the year. So averaging out the years with landfalls and the average tornado count is 34.8 and without landfalls is at 10. So 6 years later and the data and unscientific results are holding true.

The snow here for me was average. Picked upwards of 4-5 inches but this cold stretch has been impressive. We have not been above freezing but for just a couple hours on wednesday before the snow. Almost all the ponds are frozen and we don't look to go above freezing till monday with lows projected at mid single digits the next 2 nights.

After the hi res models showed me at 12+ for so many runs i started to believe. Now I'll be lucky to see 3 inches in afraid. I'm about 5 miles southwest of pgv and will likely flirt with the sharp cutoff.

I felt real good yesterday for 4 to 8 but being 5 miles west of pgv I now have that feeling I've said so many times. The feeling of a good solid storm evaporating at the last minute. I can only sit back and watch what happens now. The whole time I hear how dominate the hi res models are and yet in the end they trended to the anemic totals the globals had ran for days on end.

I hope you guys get in on the game as long as its from precip expansion and not low shifting too much to the left. Us eastern guys got shafted in December and need some redemption.

usually I am sitting on the edge worrying if I am gonna get rain or snow and this time I am worrying if I am too far west. I hate winter storm threats.

I am not at all upset with this outcome right now. Euro had me with a foot of snow for the 8th and 9th event several days ahead of the storm. I got 40 and rain. I don't want to be in a bullseye this far out. Suppression is better than being on the rain snow line and it can only change for the better and if it doesn't who cares I wasn't expecting anything anyways.

With last weeks active storms and several tornados does anyone have a confirmed tornado count so far this year? We should be somewhere around 10-13 I think if I remember correctly.

Making landfall soon and has winds of 125kts.

It was forecast to be 6 to 12 in raleigh but a wave the day before shoved the baroclinic zone further offshore and moved the low development further east. TWC had crews in rdu and Winston Salem and they got zipped. Sun was out at WS and east of 95 got thumped. Great write up on how and why it busted on rah past events page.

I wonder what brick did in 2000 when Jim Cantore was In raleigh and had flurries while we were getting a foot down east. That was a bust of my lifetime right there.

So for 3 days the Euro ran suppressed and weaker than the GFS. Now they have really just switched positons to a large degree and now that the GFS essentially caved to the euros early runs the GFS is bunk and the euro is right now that its switched to a more amped solution... Got to love tracking winter storms.

Wouldn't it be great for a large area of Georgia, SC and NC to all get 3-6 inches. Then it could warm up to spring time temps and I wouldn't care

yeah im right there with ya being in eastern NC. Early phase and i'll likely see mixed bag or all rain. I need the models to stay south and strung out until a later phase.

How often is it that we have to worry about suppression and a possible earlier phase (if that Michigan wave interacts too soon) all in the same storm.