shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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MHX is dangling a carrot for us folks just east of I95. Either way I'm expecting little to nothing but its possible this could be a couple inches higher in totals if these models they list are correct. ...High pressure to the north will strengthen tonight, and help funnel some colder air into NC. This will coincide with heavier precip moving into, and over the whole area from tonight through most of Sunday. This combination will allow rain to change to snow early Sunday morning across the western portion of the coastal plain. It is becoming more likely that snow will accumulate up to a couple inches in this area which includes the cities of Kinston, Greenville, and Williamston. Right now, expect mostly 1-2 inches of accumulation, however if these locations stay colder for longer, as indicated in the latest ECMWF, NSSL WRF, and SPC HREF, up to 4 or 5 inches could fall over portions of these counties. We will initiate a winter weather advisory for these areas, and reevaluate the latest model trends through the day today. As the low and mid levels warm above freezing during the early afternoon, the snow or rain/snow mix will turn to rain.
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First time I remember seeing that type of snow totals down to the sounds and down towards new bern. Probably wont happe but it's enough to keep me intrigued.
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Seems expanded east towards the coast also doesnt it?
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This is really the only model showing me getting more than anything other than some onset stuff before going to all rain. I'm in western pitt county in the 5 inch zone but not far from the 11 inches in Wilson county. In no way do i expect this to be correct but its something that will tarnish the Fv3 when it takes over. Its snowfall outputs will forever be questioned if its wrong. We will no longer be getting nam'd but Fv3'd!!
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This has been a good storm for me to track. Never was in the game for anything so any frozen precip I might see is a bonus and if it busts it can only bust to the up side which we all know doesn't ever happen east of RDU anymore.
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Living east of 95 it as been a problem in almost every storm we've had here. Only 1 or 2 storms do I ever remember remaining all snow.
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The FV3 is going to be put to the test big time with this system. It has been so persistent with totals its almost crazy. A lot of people looking at those numbers are expecting those numbers and could be highly disappointed if it isn't right.
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That's a horrible map for me in Pitt county lol. Literally snow over my house and rain just a few miles away. Even verbatim I'm right on the line and I suspect I'm getting my usual 33 and rain.
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I gave up on this a while back. I've got nothing to lose its gonna rain unless the storm trends colder. I'm keeping one eye on it but really rooting for you guys out west.
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I cant lose in this setup. Best place to be really. I'm all rain unless it trends south and colder. If it doesnt then nothing changes for me and I stay with my expected rain. Much rather be in this position than one where I'm expecting some insane totals only to get screwed like we did 2 years ago.
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It has continued to trend to the south and now looks to make a more sizable impact on the Philippines.
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Well next to worse case scenario for Saipan. They at least got the calm of the eye for a little bit. Worst case would have been in the eyewall for the entire time.
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It would be nice for Saipan if this westward motion were to continue for a few hours as that would certainly spare them the core but if it "wobbles" back north much at all then they could get the eyewall. Gonna be a very close call for them. Just an incredible looking storm right now.
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Looks like Saipan is going to take one bad hit. I'm sure their building codes are very strong but this is a very powerful storm.
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What a buzzsaw this one is turning out to be.
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The humidity this year has been so much worse than I ever remember. Could be I'm getting older but usually by this time at work where I have no AC I am seeing cool mornings and long pants. This year I'm sweating my ass off everyday with ridiculous humidity. Just make it stop already.
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Next sty in the making out there in the wpac. Looks great on sat already.
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Over 4300 houses and business were damaged and destroyed in New bern due to surge and wind. That is about as astonishing a number as one could conceive for a small town like new bern.
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That's a good thing correct? Tired of the rain and we aren't even flooding like those south of us.
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Anderson cooper has now been caught in that trap as well. Pics of him "standing" in waste high water but his crew on the road while he is down in a ditch. Disgraceful when so many people are dealing with the real life threatening issues they face to have these idiots sitting on the outskirts of the disaster taking it.
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Rumor is they are closing I95 at SC and Virginia borders to all incoming traffic except for relief efforts.
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The town of bath yesterday supposedly rose another 6 to 8 feet after this picture.
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Never though if be sitting here with a eye over Wilmington and not being worried it was headed north bit SOUTH. Take the radar in for minute and realize you are watching something that has never happened in recorded history.
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Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.
