shaggy

Was on 421 on my way to siler city around 6pm and the rain was incredible.glad I wasnt going through there when this happened.

We were at jockeys ridge Saturday and it was so much windier on top of the dunes than even the parking lot. Wish I had my kestrel with me. It was pretty darn chilly too with waves of sea fog rolling past us.

We broke out around 10am in the coastal plains and the temp jumped up fast. Still under mostly full sun with a few high clouds at times. HRRR has cone around to showi g a better line of storms so we will see if these inhibiting factors can be overcome.

Seeing the shad fishing do ok right now and had tons of fun today catching a bunch.

Veronica is looking nasty and it's amazing how well trevor held together. He should reorganize quickly once he is away from land.

Me and downeastnc have a bet riding that we wouldnt see any more winter weather. He is all happy that the models are trending wetter. I still say it will be hard to get accum snow north of highway 70 in the coastal plains unless the models really blow up the precip on the NW side.

The trend all year was for storms to cut and I know it's not scientific but some years we see snow every couple weeks or like this year it seems to rain every Saturday. Repetitive patterns dont seem to break easily. Another example is the year DC had 3 to 4 huge storms. That year the pattern was repetitive relative to storm track. This year is the same just with a much further northwest track.

Doesnt look as good as it did 36 hours ago but still lots of time for things to shift and change

Yeah the temps are not good enough but like CR says we need precip to even worry about any chance at all. Just sucks the euro and fv3 showed some good hits a few days ago and now we may get the storm but be too warm.

Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

The kid is saying he was befriended by a purple bear for 2 days while he was out there or so it's been leaked. Story gets stranger by the hour.

See for us eastern guys those members showing snow that far west are probably killers for us east of 95 but I havent seen them. Sadly when we see our biggest storms the precip rarely gets west of rdu

Anyone else questioning the story of the missing 3yr old boy in craven county? I know 2 guys that went down to help search. They both said their were hundreds of people looking. Multiple helicopters including 2 state trooper ones with FLIR and 6 trained dogs that never struck his scent. He was found only 1/4 mile from his yard. Seems that many people,dogs and helicopters would have seen or heard him. Add that he was found following a "tip" it all seems odd. He went missing Tuesday wearing just a jacket and was missing for 55 hours? 12 of those hours were below freezing with 4 hours in the teens. A 30lb 3 year old surviving that is either the most incredible story or there is something amiss here.

Us eastern guys need a big dog. We havent had more than 8 inches in one storm since back on the boxing day storm in 2010. This one could pop and surprise us but we dont need too much popping here east of 95. I measured 17 inches in the dec 3rd 2000 storm and that's sort the benchmark I would love to see again.

I prefer suppression for us coastal guys until just a couple days out. We never fair well when we are shown to get hammered early. The nw shift always kills us. I remember a storm several years back that was suppose to give the immediate coast a inch or so. Very tight gradient in qpf and it shifted nw by 50 miles and they got 7 or 8 inches right on the beach. As weird as it sounds for us coastal guys I'm 100% happy with where we are. Not expecting anything and if it does work NW maybe just maybe I'll see some snow if temps are good. Nothing to lose.

Crazy temp jump today. 41 to 58 in just an hour and 15 minutes. Any size to the specks?

That's perfect for us coastal guys. We have plenty of room for nw shifts lol

Models are struggling inside 7 days now so I look at nothing they say as credible beyond that and take anything inside 7 days with the biggest grain of salt possible.

Its winter in the southeast. Yeah we do occasionally get snowstorms but not regularly. Anyone from rdu tonthe west can save their tears. They had an epic storm already. I had 4 inches in that one with huge raging flakes when I was expecting an hour or two of light snow before the switch. Sit back and see how this all unfolds. Almost everyone is already above average for the year....how much can we complain about that?

Us coastal guys need to see some big totals we need that another 50 to 100 miles EAST. This thing is an eternity in the modeling world away so no op run is worth getting worked up over.

Wouldn't it be nice if that euro run was truth. As we all know 200 hrs out is an eternity and really just nothing but fantasy. We would need 5 days of consistency on run to runs before we get into a decent time frame to really start talking about this potential. Sucks to see such outputs when you know it's not likely to be close to that at all.

Still would like to see the euro and fv3 to improve at 12z.

No real support from the fv3 or euro though so count me as skeptical based off the 6z gfs being the only one with it.

No way it happens but the gfs is trying to pull through for us 4 yrs in a row.

Well it snowed the day me and my wife went to the hospital to induce her labor for my son to be born. Both his 1st and 2nd birthday parties were affected by snowstorms and had to be moved up a day early and his 3rd birthday is Jan 5th. If the trend keeps up then we should see some snow that weekend. Totally non-scientific but hey a trend is a trend!