shaggy

There's a small.village on the south end of a bay that is now in the western eyewall and will soon be in the eye. I'd bet they took a devastating storm surge. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=25W&product=vis_swir

You could fit the entire wind field of Oscar inside the eye of this one

On the coast of NC we had very little weather other than some rotating supercells. This is one I managed to catch about 2 miles from my house. Decent wall cloud and a solid funnel for a weak rotation. It tried hard to put one down but never did I don't think

Sure seems that's the best area of vorticity. It's young and still susceptible to center reformation. If this forms further east towards the cayman Islands we could see some model changes

Gefs trending towards euro/ukie/icon

Falling in better agreement with the euro

Gfs is on an island right now. Icon furthest east and strongest. At this point a blend of the ukie/euro/cmc/icon seems reasonable

It was first with the Texas landfall for Beryl

Hoping that's incorrect. It seems overzealous with that much deepening that close to land but it would be a long 2 days for me if it verified

My bet this was a cat 5 after the islands and may still be now

We saw crazy pressure falls after the EWRC this morning. Winds responded and the last plane sampled a couple of hours ago and had 150mph cane. It's satellite presentation is impressive and has only gotten much better. The eye is nearly perfect and cleared out. We will likely never know but this is a good candidate to be upped to a cat 5 post-season (unless it's a cat 5 when next recon goes in).

6mb drop between passes and it was at 150mph......question is did that represent the winds had already caught up to pressure falls or do we see this make a run a cat 5?

Next pass coming up. Should be final pass before it passes the islands

Some crazy winds on that last pass. May make a run at 150+

Reed was all over it. Big stovepipe but he blew his car up and the chase is over but the cell is still going strong.