The 4 Seasons

Pivotal has 925s fyi

i expect nothing but a free pass when im doing 90 in a 45 and free EZ passes over the Tappan Zee

These could just be short term trends and models are seeing something that could just as easily reverse tomorrow, we got a lot runs to go so well see where were at tomorrow. But for now everything at 00z looks good for a few inches in CT away from the immediate coast.

A lot of that qpf at the start looks like mostly rain and when it does transfer over its still gonna be pretty warm in the city itself, i doubt they get lower than mid 30s, unless it comes down really hard for a while

Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look

so with that being said, laughing at the euro but the GFS swings from nearly nothing 0.03 to 0.18 to 0.51 qpf for each run since 12Z. Even worse swings than the euro..thats what i mean by theres really no bar out there.

Holy fuckin shit, what did the GFS just do? i thought the 18Z ECMWF was off its rocker but the GFS said ill see your call and i'm all in.

No.

because its a waste of money, electricity and server space? i have no idea why that thing is still being run, it baffles the mind

Yeah thats probably the best run yet for CT for the worst model (save NAVGEM that no one, minus George cares about)

I been sittin tight for over 3 months now

i know that gets you rock hard, but have a little sympathy for the rest of us..

It is, but thats not saying much either. I mean you couldnt honestly put any model above it right? Maybe you could argue the GFS but that would be it. And my opinion its still #2 but maybe not by as much as it used to be.

Taking notes from the NAM and its wild swings Speaking of which, the 3k is practically a whiff

That was a big jump NE for this time lead on the euro, wow

Looks good

and even for them it sucks a big one

I hope doesn't turn out to be one of those situations where 10-20 miles and a few hundred feet up means the difference between 12 and 1... would be the ultimate 22/23 kick in the nuts for us death valley and/or coastal dwellers

during that cold blizzard? Jan 28-29? I wouldn't use them for that kind of system i think it highlights the lower elevations and coastal areas that would struggle more than the hills but wouldnt take it face value

its "positive" though so its the max accumulation, not current snow depth. If you go back in time it looks the same

Just out of curiousity, whats the Narcan spitting out for the euro op run?

Euro snow maps are showing 1-3 for W CT and 3-6 for NNJ. For us and coastal areas with temps in the mid 30s and 0.1-0.3/hr rates im not sure how much of that would actually accumulate as always up and in higher elevations would do better. The shore and low elevations i think would struggle to accumulate at all really, then you have a pretty sharp qpf drop off to the NE. Id probably wouldn't go more than a coating to an inch for really anywhere in the state right now. Higher elevations in NFF, NNH county and Litchfield would be the best spot to possibly pick up an inch or two

Put those stats from yesterday into a graphic but the numbers are slightly different to match the climo for March 7th. Snowfall to date compared to normal to date for Northeast select cities.

Snowfall to date compared to normal to date as of March 7th 2023 for Northeast select cities

Thats why i wrapped that 1-2 around the city/coast and did not include them. Decaying system and a very marginal BL with temps starting out in the 40s plus urban heat island...a lot of the snow maps had advisory level snowfall in the 2-4 range right through the city