The 4 Seasons

OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 - 2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%, indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues. Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT, and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT. These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.

jesus (ct) id give my left nut for 1-2 feet

Radar...

Just took a drive up in the hills of Hamden and the R/S line is very sharp right at 100FT near Sleeping Giant it went from all rain to all snow almost instantly on RT-10. Everything turned white going up the hill and roads became snow covered at about 350FT. Made it to 550FT and there was about an inch of snow OTG and snowing pretty heavily probably at a rate of 1"/hr. All rain in North Haven at 100-200FT and 33F.

Oxc went to all snow and 32 quite a bit colder up there in the hills

Please give a final measurement when it's over that would be very helpful thx

Looking forward to my white rain and wet roads. Totals are going to drop off sharply, likely even within towns like Hamden that range from 0FT to 650FT, but thats impossible to show on a map. I tried to highlight the elevation component with the zones and wording the best i could. Looks like the BDR record will not be in jeopardy for yet another storm.

lol

oh, just asking you usually do overlapping snowfall forecasts 1-3/2-4/3-6, so i figured there was another range in there, never seen a gap before

you said C-2 and 3-6 zones

nothing between 2 and 3?

Looks like BOX even cut back from yesterdays PM update, not sure why...seems a bit low to me given the overnight data.

Yesterday you said 1-3, so it seems you've gone up. The trends the past few runs are definitely positive for CT so i would lean a bit higher but probably not more than C-2 for upwards in NE CT. The hills of NNH and NFF seem the best spot right now for possible advisory snows probably 2-3 there, the coast and valleys are still going to have a hard time accumulating. We'll see what todays runs do, as this could very easily reverse the trend.

Probably, at this point it's certainly possibly this could occur. They need 0.5" right now to tie the record which from what i understand replaces the previous record, but yeah 0.6 to actually break it.

Since its the 5-year anniversary, i thought id post a few images. This was an incredible storm. Pretty much a 6-hour window or maybe even a bit less of heavy snow, several CG strikes locally that sounded like a summer-time severe storm with loud convective claps and snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr. We picked up about 13.5" from around 330pm to 930pm. Western CT had a truly historic event with 22-28" while the SE corner got hardly anything with an inch or two, quite the gradient. Here's the updated map i just did a couple months ago....

yeah ive been obsessing over the models all day long and its easy to forget its pretty much right at D5/120hrs out still. I dont think weve ever put out a call >72 hrs except for Dec 2020 when it was about 4/4.5 days because of how strong the consensus was

i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though.

yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z

Looks more amped to me than both 12 and 18z on just about every panel at the sfc on wxbell. Spread looks more NW as well

I expected it to tick east

Yeah thats gonna be ugly for CT

Got a new toy to play with. Finally got around to make a SNE, CT/MA/RI map. So i'll be able to some forecasts and analysis for this region now. Too bad this winter sucks...

We call that the Tom Cruise white and wet special.

I have zero expectations this will look anything like it does now in 24 hours. I'm just hoping to grab a quick 1 or 2 Friday night and maybe 4 or 6" of slop next mon/tue. But this season, even that is probably pushing it. Knowing 22/23 ill get a little bit of snow in the air, white rain friday night and a windy rainer next Monday. 8.9" on the season 75 days without any measurable snowfall in the heart of winter One 3.9", a quick 0.4" late Feb and 4.6" Feb 27-28 2.1" on the roads all season Slightly above the all-time rat of 01-02

GFS looks good for the Methuen area ....