Damn i didnt know F5 had a simulated radar for the UKMET and going out to 156hrs+. Thought it was just SV, never seen you post UKMET stuff from there before. Do they have a lot of other panels like qpf and upper levels that go out that far?
It's still a massive shift south, what he said is still valid. Even though the time periods on the maps dont match, it is a big change at 00Z.
Here's the same time period.
can you post some pics from 144-168? I think it's that storm vista site that has those in precip panel maps..everything else seems to just go out to 144
Still a lot of spread on the GEFS. Lots of amped coastal huggers but also still a ton of strung out whiffs. Snowfall mean and probs went way up due to the increase of a few big members in there.
you don't say
I do agree it's gonna be tough down here in SSNE with no real cold air in place which ive mentioned before. Gonna need a pretty close to perfect soln and at D6 anythings still on the table. The ensembles being N leaning is what gives me the most pause despite the OP runs. Lot of hits for C/NNE and only a couple down here.
Was looking at H5 early on thats why i posed it as a question. Clown maps aside i think the trend/consistency has improved from 12-18-00 today. 970s SE of the BM is still a pretty intense system We got a long ways to go though
havent seen 18 in over a decade, usually im thinking 10+ (double digits) but its really about the winds/vis but we won't get into those parameters/semantics here..i know what you mean
in this winter though...
I dont think this has much more higher ceiling anyway, maybe a little bit. But i think we'd all kill for a 6-12 event (for those who havent seen one since jan 2022 anyway)
Kinda warm near the coast but the Icon tends to do that but i'd take that track and intensity all day
Lack of any real cold airmass is gonna be a problem (near the coast) though even if we do a get a bomb like this
We need a good ole fashion 95 special that has a NW edge so sharp that you can get a paper cut off it, to even things out. Make the interior NW hills suck exhaust and flurries while its dumping at the coast.
or even better...