The 4 Seasons

It's right up the top of the list with the AARP, WRF and Icon

so when do we start talking about the mix line? I can already hear folks bringing up Mar 2017 and Dec 2020 (but that aint happening considering the path)

bruh, remember where we were 24 hours ago? Sometimes i can't tell the difference between you and Tblizzs posts. Howd you get so jaded was it those storms that ruined you...i dont remember you being like this years ago. I think a low end warning event is a huge win if that happens considering we were legitimately staring down the barrel of a whiff (which is certainly still an option though unlikely)

im almost certain its a grid coding error. every day with a 30% chance of rain, even when its mostly sunny. plus theres no rain in the forecast on some of those days, and the snowstorm...and the zones look fine. Now when i click around it says 30% chance of rain/snow every day. Its mostly just the BOX area thats like that, OKX is fine

ill be lucky if i see a few flakes

being on here for almost 12 years, and seeing from who that post originated, i assure you, it was not

yeah mostly same, a lot of BM (or hair SE) storms arent great here depending on the trajectory if they cross SW to NE over the BM thats fine like 2013 but if they swing a wide right almost due north/NE over the BM like Jan 15/22 then WOR can be in trouble. Theres obviously a ton of other factors but thats the general idea

that was brutal, even worse here. Missed a 16-22" by about 15 miles to my east and ended up with 7" of sand. Jan 15 and Jan 22 were pretty big demoralizing storms though 15 was even worse. 22 i was at least expecting a somewhat shaft.

One thing i can say for sure is we are miles better than where we were 24 hours ago. And that's a win. Could have been just as uncertain or a main model trend towards where the Euro was 24hr ago and that didn't happen.

We are doubly screwed. I'm breaking out my wallet now, i gotta see whats behind that paywall!

6Z euro looks almost identical to 00Z overall with evolution QPF slightly better for S CT and SE MA

4-Day Trend We've seen the AIs been extremely stable in a lot of storms this season but this one isn't really acting like that. The AI-EC took a pretty huge jump NW at 00Z and has been bouncing around quite a bit. Getting closer in a imagine we'll start to see things start stabilizing at bit more on the AI front we'll see.

lolz rip

how much you expecting there? 0-T?

All the good winters are usually exhausting and peppered in with busts, bad luck and wasted potential 14-15 was a great winter but exhausting and frustrating at the same down here WOR. Same with 17-18 many busts that winter and still ended up with near 60". Could have been 80-100.

Yeah this is what you want to start seeing for the potential for a big dog, a bunch of members inside the BM tucked in near ACK. It's the first run of the GEFS to really do that. Mean went way up as expected 6Z 00Z 18Z

Doubling down if anything

6Z AI GFS is a nuke! Great run A foot from NY to BOS Back from the dead. Funny to watch this model go from a cutter to a complete whiff and way back NW over the past 4 days

I wouldn't take anything the nam is throwing out at 48 hours even remotely seriously let alone 84. It's pretty similar to 00Z however. On the other hand 6z rgem is nice throws a lot of qpf back west. Looks a tick NW from 00Z just glancing at it

I didn't think anyone would think that I took that seriously. Yeah it's obviously an error, grids are all fucked up in BOX. Anyway..

Monsoon coming? Rain for the next 8 days in the PC

Glad I went lean for CT probably would go down further but not gonna bother for that sliver in N CT

Me too. 24 hour interval polygon sharp lines and mslp only. Almost useless. It's kinda like how we have the JMA now. I remember looking at Feb 2006 and being like oh that's a blizzard that's nice and moved on back to the NCEP site.

Either way I like the idea of only 2X/day I wonder how others feel about that. Maybe just the have the high res stuff run 4X/day. I kinda miss when the Euro only ran twice per day. The only main global that was running four times was the GFS. Now it's everything even the Canadian and UK run 4 times now in short range

Up in Torrington, definitely. With temps locked below freezing the whole duration and snow, sleet, freezing rain i'd expect secondary roads to be messy that are untreated. It's not going to be the worst storm in the world but definitely a problem for the AM commute well inland in Litchfield Co. I'd probably expect some delays. But you know the deal, treated main roads and highways will be mostly fine. Snow/Sleet/Ice should be over by the AM commute and anything that falls as a mix will have changed back over to light snow/flurries by then. The bulk of it should be over after midnight.