The 4 Seasons

That empty, hollow feeling when the snow starts winding down and post-storm depression starts settling in. There's nothing on the horizon thats even remotely got a chance so you retreat to the 384hr GFS panels and then all of a sudden you realize, I've got a serious problem.

Chill, you've gotten 4,335" since start of records. No need to be greedy.

Hope december pans, it's been a long long time since we've had a decent to good december, especially for the city.

It said rain at the coast and r/s inland. Thats different. Alsoim really not splitting hairs when im just talking about the overall conveyance of communication of the look of the storm on the AFD, not talking about the grids or zones. BOXs was spot on and imo, conveyed what we're all seeing while OKX read like a mainly liquid event. Either way its still 5.5 days out now.

Were obv at the point where you just go chance pops. But at least BOX has the right idea with snow in the zones as the main ptype. It's not like i use it for anything i just had some spare time and figure id read the AFDs. BOX AFD 10/10, OKX AFD /10

I had to double check to make sure they weren't referring to the first possible event, or wave 1. And nope, no they weren't.

Ensembles are all pointing to a near 40/70 track. Perfect strong high placement to the north. It's possible it can go either way, id lean towards more offshore though. Right now it appears to be mainly a white event not rain. What exactly is pointing to most likely being all rain at the coast and mix inland with possibly light snow at the very end? That's almost ridiculous to say. Terrible AFD long term write up imo. BOX on the other hand, doesn't seem to be sniffing glue this morning. Way more reasonable for the overall view of things. Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in this timeframe. Not too much of a change from the previous shift where the EPS/GEFS shows clustering of surface lows near the benchmark. Still too early to latch onto things given there still is a decent amount of spread amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance. The operational GFS/CMC do show impacts from the system, but more of a glancing blow in comparison to the operational EC. Does appear that colder air should be aided in being locked in with a surface high in place over Quebec. Right now models show 925 hPa temperature ranging from 0 to - 15 degree Celsius. Given the uncertainty this far out have kept with the NBM guidance and capped at high chance PoPs. Still much too early for specifics. If a coastal storm pans out there could be some coastal flooding concerns given the high astro tides and strong wind gusts. Could also have significant snowfall, but really need to hone in on specific details which are impossible to discern this far out. Stay tuned for future updates.

Global models continue to signal a southern stream-dominated low pressure system that could approach and pass nearby sometime from Wednesday into Wednesday night impacting the local area. Will not be making any significant changes to the current forecast during this time period being this is still far out in time. Right now it appears that the most likely precipitation types would be rain at the coast and a wintry mix inland with the possibility of light snow towards the tail end late Wednesday night, but this has plenty of time to change. High pressure builds back across the area on Thursday. Um....

i think i might have pulled this from you that storm.

me too unfortunately..NYC busted really bad looking at it now, they had a 17" FX from the NWS. They only picked up 7.6.

I just read this. And yes i can confirm NWS Zones had 18-24 the night before...lots a huge amounts from local stations, i went pretty conservative and still busted high. We changed over to heavy sleet and snow, some of the heaviest ive seen by 10am and it was supposed to snow all day. I was definitely dissapointed with 9.9 on a 12-20 forecast from myself and NWS 18-24. Could have been worse though, you could have been expected warning amounts and ended up with 2" in KGON. Last minute bumps NW FTL. It was still a great season though and we did have a big boy 10-18 statewide the month before with lots of TSSN. Jan had a nice daytime blizzard as well. Fyi..

Since you were snow88.

EPS probs for 1,3,6 and 12 are very high for the lead time

give us break, will ya? we havent had a warning level event since Mar 2019. Almost 2 years. And a warning level event in met winter since Jan 2018, Almost 3 years. I got 10 freaking inches last winter for christs sakes im ready to

its a good sign when even the most modest Euro wx is 12+ statewide. EPS will most likely be much improved from 00Z

Banned.

well that was fun, perfect track, great run overall. widespread 1 foot plus type deal.

Euros gonna be epic.

From my experience the pivotal weather snow maps are not much different than wxbell. Yes wxbell is a bit more extreme but not by much. Pivotal still showing 2'+ on theirs. I do really like the Storm Vistas and EuroWXs the best though. Either way, i think pretty much everyone here knows to take them with a grain of salt, maybe not all pros but at least everyone is well seasoned. Unlike twitter and facebook. people take it literally.

i agree overall, though its better for me than you, id rather deal with the snow/no snow line and a scraper than the R/S line and getting 0 or 12 just to my north. im sick of those, but thats just me. I like to be on the northern edge, at least i know its cold

yep unfortunately, everywhere i think

GEFS looks great.

It's true, you'd get fired for that. Reason: Extreme hardcore pornography watching at work.

Kinda expected that, this lead time and with the GFS being the furthest west and shifting quite a bit SE to benchmark status. CMC followed. CMC is now the 5 gallon bucket of ice water thrown on you when you're deep in a knocked out opiate trance and wake up in the psych ward.

Narcan can't touch this 100% pure manufactured china white.