The 4 Seasons

For timing it makes sense but i have a strong suspicion the roads remain mostly wet, except high elevation areas where mod/heavy snow falls.

The Canada people are coming. Snow or no snow, I am fascinated by this one particularly and see it as a learning experience.

I'm staying the course for now but awaiting the 12Z suite to change anything. 00Z/06Z was ugly. Even Ryan's go-to HREF is filthy, SREFs...although the most bullish atm cut way back....

Here, took 15 seconds!

Well this is becoming an easier and easier forecast. 6Z did not hold serve and cut wayyy back. I'll await the 12Z suite to make an update to the map but may have to give it quite the hair cut...thinking maybe 1-3 SE 84, C-1 NW. But things may get worse. I think models are picking up on the dry air, though i did not look at the 6Z suite closely at all.

LOL 0-0?

RPM says to CT: haha, i gave you 4-6 for several runs a day ago, now you get a big goose egg! Can't say I'm surprised.

Whole state under a WWA, no WSWs...shocking.

I don't like seeing weenie models like the RPM/NAM so bullish and the most reliable model, ECMWF so meager and dry ala March 21st 2018. Doesn't really mean much to me...though still not super confident either. Advisories up for CT for 2-4

It's frustrating to take a deep dive at forecasting because BUFKIT and many sites with soundings only provide them for the GFS/NAM. Both of these models, imo, are inferior to the ECMWF. But the ECMWF i cant see soundings or use points on BUFKIT or even have an EC-MOS type data that i can get with the american models.

Interesting Pivotal weather clown map is higher with 2-3 for much of the state and a small area of 3-4 in interior E CT

This is what makes forecasting fun. We are attempting to predict the future. If models were perfect, how boring would it be? Come Wednesday morning, some will have egg on their face and some won't. One thing i've learned over the years of met school and op forecasting is to not poke fun, laugh at or attack anyone who disagrees with me. It just hasn't happened yet. Over the years i've seen storms that have been forecasted to be 7-14" and end up with 0 and i've seen a chance flurries end up being 6-8".

I'm already at Foxwoods.

I was just taking a guess. hey i got 4/5 right!

I was more thinking along the lines where a fast moving clipper moves just south of LI and enhances 1-3" amounts into 3-6" snows. When you have a good upper air pattern and it's forecast to be an explosive bomb off the delmarva, that's different. Blizzard of 2005 started its life as a clipper.

That's pretty much where am i right now

What is considered the fraud 5? 1. Inverted trough 2. Anafrontal snows 3. Wrap-around snows 4. Snow Squalls 5. Clipper redevlopment ??? I'm just guessing

plenty of model cycles to go...

Quickly, after reviewing the 12Z/18Z runs and checking out bufkit/soundings this is what i think is most likely at the moment. There are some positives such as good growth in the DGZ, model continuity amongst GFS/EC/GEM but also some red flags such as the dry air depicted in the GFS soundings and some mesos cutting way back and shifting SE. First call map, we are still about 36 hours away from the meat of it, final call issued tomorrow afternoon/evening before any snow begins.

EC slightly improved from 12Z not too much change but it went in the right direction.

18Z GEM/RGEM/HRGEM all in agreement with about 4-7 statewide. Here is the 18Z GEM

Light snow accumulation means sub advisory for that forecast period i.e. around 1", 1-2, 1-3, 2-3 Moderate means advisory for that period Heavy means warning for that period Adding an inch to say 1-3 yields about 2-4ish. That's generally how that works in my experience. @OceanStWx can correct me if im wrong. Light, moderate, heavy are the three categories and its usually stated outside of a time when exact numbers come into play.

Hi? Not sure how to interpret this, but i've been on the 2-4 range since the start, not flurries not 4-8 either. Nothings changed, map coming shortly. And no, there is no chance of WSWs (if you mean Winter Storm Watch or Warning) in the AM package (tomorrow) and i'm willing to be money on that. I'd say they will hoist advisories statewide in the AM package but its also possible they may hold off to PM with boarderline totals and low confidence. But most likely think well see advisories across the state tomorrow morning.

Yea, i posted that earlier...they bumped up while BOX bumped down and ALY went wayyyyy down.

Even some 7,8" lollis