The 4 Seasons

Last jan was a different beast, definitely a bigger system. What really made that event really bad was the extreme drop in temperature combined with high winds right after. We got down into the single digits, nothing melted not even on the roads. And with the high winds, trees came down left and right, tons of people without power. This made it exceptionally bad for road crews to try and restore power. The impact will be less this time for sure as we are not dealing with the winds and extreme temperatures. As far as straight ice accumulation i think it could approach or rival that of Jan 19 2019. Probably end up being a little bit less though i imagine.

I don't even remember that event. Let's talk about it.

850s start to blow through CT around 12Z and make it all the way up to about just shy of the pass pike before retreating.

Here's the 6Z ECMWF weenie map for you winter weather weenies

This. Weenie maps are showing a great deal of zr accumulation right down to the shore. In the 0.4-0.6 range. I went lower at the immediate the shore and right now feel the significant icing threat is along the merritt pkwy to about and around 84. Especially central valley CT like you said is prime for freezing rain. My area to MMK could be in some trouble. This isn't a huge event i don't think, i.e. ice storm warning criteria >0.5, that's probably the cap. But i can certainly see some inland valley areas getting 0.25-0.50". The freezing rain soundings on the NAM bufkit are no joke, it's light enough to accure, cold enough and long enough to accumulate well.

Yea, i just took a look at that. One noticable difference compared to the rest of the model suite is that it brings snow in much earlier with the leading edge entering fairfield county around 9pm and keeps most of the state snow until around 9Z. I can only see H85/H7/SFC temps though. Then after 9Z the transition begins with a lot of sleet inland and freezing rain for the southern half of CT. The bulk of it ends tomorrow afternoon. Not sure how trust worthy the long range HRRRv4 is. How did it perform on the last two events? I haven't really been looking at it much.

Not sure why the NWS is so bearish on the icing potential. For most of CT and RI they only have a couple one hundredths of an inch with a max at hartford of .11

@weathafella

Much more is quite the overstatement. Big story on the NAM is the sig icing event here in CT. This could be bad for us.

Ice storm on the 00Z NAM for interior southern and central CT

First call for Wednesdays mixed bag event. If trends continue ill make an update tomorrow but hoping not to. EC/NAM/Can used for the forecast GFS completely ignored.

that would be nice. I'm making a map right now, actually 2, one for ice one for snow. Leaning heavily on the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian, disregarding the GFS. My biggest challenge right now i feel is the immediate shore and whether they flip over to rain or get prolonged icing. Past experience tells me BDR/HVN/GON should pop above 32 into the mid 30s I forsee widespread closures for most of the state due to icing, with the exception of the immediate shore may just have delays or nothing at all, unless it ends up being much colder there.

It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31.

What gives you that inclination

It was just more robust on the front end on the 18Z run that increased the snowfall across CT...it ticked warmer at H85, i cant see the profile or any other layers though on weathermodels. Here's another map from 12Z, ZR accum.

cant see much yet but this looks like a south tick on the thermals just for comparison reference, can't get into weathermodels atm.

but i want my 4-6.

From my subjective perspective...pretty bad from the little bit ive watched it so far

Looks like the RPM coming in colder yet again. Deep Thruster is awfully snowy for CT

RGEM HRGEM maps? On the phone

I'd be shocked if the euro doesnt bump north at least GFS was ugly for CT almost no snow and a lot of mixed ka ka, rain at the shore.

One storm that comes to mind that it latched on to early and infact did not waffle back and forth as it usually does was Jan 23rd 2016 blizzard. It actually did pretty well, it was a hair too far north with the heaviest qpf but overall a good performance from what i remember.

I don't remember that. I've had access to it since 2014 and the skill has appeard to be exactly the same

I'm a prime candidate for this statement right now, bad icing tends to occured in this area last year on multiple storms... Anybody remember this? Terrible situation. 12Z RGEM coming out now just able to look at the CMC-Ptype page, looks like the initial thump cut way back. Precip shield is much lighter on the front end but thats only to hr48.

Are those MeteoCentre Snow liquid maps any more or less accurate than your typical snowmap from say wxbell or TT? Like, how wxbell and others will just use two layers (and im just throwing this out there) If 850 <0 & 925 <0 Then snow or how TT counts sleet as 10:1 snow. I always wondered about these.