The 4 Seasons

Well the storm hasn't happened yet so i don't think anyone should be counting chickens just yet. With that said, the GFS is not likely to win anything, by a long shot. As will said it was way over amped and thermals were awful as usual. Well have to take a look after its all said and done but what i've seen recently is that the GFS is coming south and cooling off and the EC coming north, just a consensus being reached atm.

Weenie stripe

ah i see, where did you find that, id like to see if there are updates to any other wwa or wsws

@BuildingScienceWx loves ice...damn ice!

Thumpity Thump on the 18Z RPM covers even S CT with 4-6" ill post a map for Jerry when its done

howd you get your hands on that?

Saw people talking about the Ice Storm warnings, here is the criteria. It's 0.5...0.25 farther SW. The Freezing Rain Advisory was discontinued, it'll now be under a Winter Weather Advisory but the Ice Storm Warning is still in use.

Advisories expanded into southern CT down to the shore. Highly doubt we see any warnings though, criteria won't be met on either the snow or ice side of things.

looks like the euro came north a bit, still a mess for ct but it seems like we are reaching consensus now

Go for it, you can start one..though i think you'll be talking to yourself in there

The RPM goes through stages from "if everything breaks right" to "if everything goes to sh!t" and everything in between, i think it's written into the code.

HRRR is pretty damn juicy at the end of the latest few runs. a good 2-4 is looking likely even right down to the shore.

do tell. i haven't looked at anything after 00z tomorrow night

Going big with the ice i see. I am likely bumping up the .1-.3 range to .25-.50, our zones are the same though. My biggest problem though is forecasting the shore, you think they dont see any ice accumulation at all? I dont think itll be as big as inland areas but still have up to a tenth or so..

BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice. Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT. Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out.

Those are some high probs on the EPS, though we are really close

@OceanStWx can correct me but i think they did away with the Freezing Rain & Ice Storm Warning products and lumped themp into WWA and WSW products. But this is the criteria nontheless. I think we are a candidate for this in the four southern counties of CT. Highly doubt they will be up this evening though.

GFS ice for CT, its getting colder each run. Coming towards EC. Still a half inch for most is serious.

my thoughts exactly, freezing rain looks serious for southern CT

That seems unrealistic. A winter storm warning is issued for an avg of 6". You can bet your bottom dollar if we are expecting 4-8 and its snowing during the AM rush all schools will be closed, and they should be imo.

??? um...that seems to be more than enough from my experience in CT, i imagine NYC would be even more liberal with the cancellations. It depends on road conditions obviously. But almost all schools were cancelled here for the last storm across the state, even the shore and most places only got 2-4, with 0.5-2 at the coast. It all depends on timing. If we get 6-12 the night before and it ends at 4AM, there probably will be a 2 hour delay. If the forecast is for 2-4 or even 1-3 and its snowing at 5-9am, schools will be closed.

@weatherwiz Coolwx is a great site to get a quick glance at omega/growth and p-type accumulation, if bufkit isn't your thing. Even so, it's still faster than downloading and loading profiles into bufkit. 6Z GFS has a lot of ice for CT ranging from .1-.6 and NAM from .1-.4 with the exception of BDL. Again southern CT inland from the immediate coast looks to be in the most trouble. .666 Ice for OXC on the GFS

Lot's of cancellations on Tuesday, probably most of the state. Shoreline is the only place in question.

I agree. Probably going to be taking things up a bit for the final call. Want to check out the 12Z suite first. @weathafella Deep Thruster & RPM with a 6-8 stripe along the MA boarder/I-90

I refuse to look at anything other than this forum on mobile. I don't know how you guys do it. It's like having your hands tied behind your back, but maybe that's what you're into