I don't post anymore on this stuff since the MPM thread was shut down. I figured what was the point.
But, a rapid antigen test that's specific would be what we need to end this mess.
I started looking into the PCR test a little more back in June. I was appalled to find out positives were being called at cycle number <40 (or <37 depending on the lab). I've used real time RT-PCR (or Taqman PCR) since 1997. We always discounted mRNA levels if the Ct value popped above 34-35. Not enough mRNA to make protein at any significant level. Several studies have been done that correlate Ct value with actual viral transfection assays, which is the gold standard. Ct values above 33-34 show no infectious viral particles are present. Yet the cut off still remains absurdly high.
I'd love to see the Ct values that come back from these so called cluster events like on a swim team or frat house party. Chances are one kid actually had the sniffles for covid and the rest popped "positive" because they picked up some free mRNA or a few virus particles that their innate immune system took care of. You could find the same amount of mRNA in the entire household from flu A if someone in your house was positive by an antigen test for flu. They don't test for flu with PCR, and they shouldn't with this. Its too sensitive. The test itself is fine, but the interpretation needs to be adjusted to what's called positive.
I'm still not sure why no one has come out with a good rapid test. It takes 9-12 months to make a good, specific monoclonal antibody that's suitable for a rapid test, so hopefully that's not too far off. If they keep using PCR and calling "positives" at Ct values of <40, some places will stay locked down for ever since small amounts of mRNA will hang around for months.