geddyweather

20z gonna be late. Weeeeeee. Meanwhile, interesting looking cell trying to take shape NW of Indy along the warm front. Getting to the time of the day where wind profiles in this area were going to start growing more favorable IIRC.

TOR Warning there now.

Cracks me up how models have that uncanny ability to diverge in close range after 2-3 consistent runs.

Unbelievable. I hadn't heard anything from there today yet and had the slightest bit of optimism things had leveled off. Just horrific. Anyone who thinks this whole thing is BS should be made to watch what is happening in Italy.

"Public Information Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 420 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 ...Update on Davidson/Wilson/Smith County Tornado... NWS survey teams have concluded that one long-track tornado occurred in Davidson, Wilson, and Smith Counties on Tuesday morning. The path of this tornado stretched roughly 50.25 miles from beginning to end, starting in the John C Tune area and ending 3.50 miles west of Gordonsville. Survey teams are continuing to work on where this tornado began near the John C Tune area. The final tornado path remains subject to revision as teams complete their survey." No word on Putnam County/Cookeville area. Believe there are still 17-20 MIA so that may be why surveys have not progressed there.

Or if it was mid January so sun angle & warm ground could be a non-factor. It’s been a classic “all day” snow but getting consistent accumulation has been a uphill battle until recently.

Not quite seeing the agreement I want to in regards to 6"+ totals locally. The horrors of model performance this go-round need not be stated, so still waiting eagerly for another set of runs before we cautiously get on board the ship. If I were to lock in as-is, I'd say 3-5" imby seems like a decent call. However, still a ton of subtle differences this far inside of 24 hours for me to feel good about anything...

Woke up under a Winter Storm Watch when 24 hours ago it still seemed very likely that this would be a non-event locally. This hobby, man...

*NW Ohio has entered the chat* Let’s just say, I have my doubts.

Good luck to you! Will miss having someone close in the NW OH area to interact with on here. Charleston is a wonderful place, and I hope you can adjust well.

12z Euro = lock it in. Seriously though, if we can get a decent phase, this has the potential to wipe out 2-3 months of misery for many. Getting the pieces to mesh is always tough though, and at this time and juncture, I am going to doubt getting something as clean as the Euro has to offer until we get some more data in. Cautious optimism.

Cautiously optimistic pattern wise. I’ve seen worse looks this season. Also, I’m traveling on the 13th. So naturally this will happen and probably be big.

Quite a lot of sleet on the ground here. Kinda depressing tbh. Main snow bands missed to the north by 20 miles or so, best FZRA is to my south. Got the cursed end of warm tongue.

I love TT to death, one of my favorite model sites, but this has been driving me nuts lately. With the tendency of social media posters to emphasize runs like this that advertise the biggest numbers possible, there really needs to be some work done on minimizing the taint that results in these jacked up numbers. The reality is, **includes sleet** really does nothing especially when the pinks and greens are on the map. I do not envy your position of having to calm the herds who get spooked, especially on events like this that will be wayyyyy more of a mixed precip event, including periods of FZRA that tend to have far quicker/sudden impacts. Definitely would be worth reaching out to Levi to inquire more about this.

Anyone who is getting suckered down for a severe/flooding thread instead?

Condolences to anyone in Iowa.

Don't have to worry about model madness when you've known you're getting rain for 5 days now. That said, weak/east seasonal trend on one side and warm/amped (maybe too amped) on the other side easily makes this one of the more painful forecasts this season. Curious to see what the rest of the 12z suite shows.

Big time QPF moves into Central IL this run as well as into the MS Valley which is an area that really never *needs* an event like this. Also looking at some decent wind potential on the Lakes and SE side of the SLP if it winds up to sub-990mb.

Is our standard "omg the spread" phase incoming after a day or so of some quote unquote consistency? One thing is for certain, I am continuously impressed by the atmospheric river that this system will be drawing. Pretty eye-popping in terms of both QPF totals and regional reach! The possibility of a flooding aspect in the OH Valley should not be overlooked.

53 and rainy/misty here. NW winds gusting into the 20-30mph range. Just horrid. Won't even go into the record books or anything either because the morning high here was 63. Thank goodness for an almost automatic rebound tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/Ryan_Wichman/status/1136351069041287170 That storm amazingly did, in fact, drop a tornado for a little bit. Minimal damage to a nearby farm (you can see the debris in the video). There ended up being multiple tornado warned storms as activity moved east into Cleveland's CWA, but nothing aside from this one was confirmed. I was able to get on the storm that trailed the Malinta storm. It ended up going tornado warned, and I was able to get some good structure shots from Benton Ridge, OH as it moved off to my SE. Wall cloud is faintly visible to the right of the power lines mid frame. You can kinda make out a meso structure as well.

Went from solid 80s this weekend to 50 and slop for two days. Can we maybe...MAYBE lock in a seasonal pattern at the end of this week? PLEASE?

Yeahhhhh, I knew this was gonna happen too. I just needed something else to talk about honestly. I get putting out Day 4-8 maps as kind of a zonal “heads-up” about an upcoming pattern favorable for severe but I definitely do not think they should be heralded as gospel. If I had a dollar for every D4-8 that got subdued on D3, I could be out chasing in West Texas today. I am surprised, however, there’s isnt more talk about potential on the warm front in Illinois tomorrow. Granted it’s very conditional still, but there could be some decent action out there if things line up right. G

Talking about rain, flooding, and below avg temps is getting a bit exhausting. Here's some severe bits to nibble on... Day 4 (Wednesday): Main show appears to be out in "classic" tornado alley but a good chunk of MO is included. Wouldn't be surprised to see some action spill into southern IL as well late in the day. Day 5 (Thursday): Long area from Cleveland, OH all the way down to Waco, TX. Really not sure about how the subforum fairs for this one. I'm not TOO impressed but its something. Plenty of shear, but moisture and heating potentially lacking due to questionable warm sector advancement amongst other things. Same old story. Could see southern parts of the region (ie: central/southern IN, southern OH, northern KY, etc) having some fun as those areas always seem to do really well on the 50/50 days like this. G

Wrap around stuff for NWO is probably the last hope for a white Christmas in the area. Thinking maybe 0.5-1" at most, if we're lucky. Wind will be interesting Christmas Eve...