geddyweather

20z gonna be late. Weeeeeee. Meanwhile, interesting looking cell trying to take shape NW of Indy along the warm front. Getting to the time of the day where wind profiles in this area were going to start growing more favorable IIRC.

TOR Warning there now.

Cracks me up how models have that uncanny ability to diverge in close range after 2-3 consistent runs.

Unbelievable. I hadn't heard anything from there today yet and had the slightest bit of optimism things had leveled off. Just horrific. Anyone who thinks this whole thing is BS should be made to watch what is happening in Italy.

"Public Information Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 420 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 ...Update on Davidson/Wilson/Smith County Tornado... NWS survey teams have concluded that one long-track tornado occurred in Davidson, Wilson, and Smith Counties on Tuesday morning. The path of this tornado stretched roughly 50.25 miles from beginning to end, starting in the John C Tune area and ending 3.50 miles west of Gordonsville. Survey teams are continuing to work on where this tornado began near the John C Tune area. The final tornado path remains subject to revision as teams complete their survey." No word on Putnam County/Cookeville area. Believe there are still 17-20 MIA so that may be why surveys have not progressed there.

Or if it was mid January so sun angle & warm ground could be a non-factor. It’s been a classic “all day” snow but getting consistent accumulation has been a uphill battle until recently.

Not quite seeing the agreement I want to in regards to 6"+ totals locally. The horrors of model performance this go-round need not be stated, so still waiting eagerly for another set of runs before we cautiously get on board the ship. If I were to lock in as-is, I'd say 3-5" imby seems like a decent call. However, still a ton of subtle differences this far inside of 24 hours for me to feel good about anything...

Woke up under a Winter Storm Watch when 24 hours ago it still seemed very likely that this would be a non-event locally. This hobby, man...

*NW Ohio has entered the chat* Let’s just say, I have my doubts.

Good luck to you! Will miss having someone close in the NW OH area to interact with on here. Charleston is a wonderful place, and I hope you can adjust well.

12z Euro = lock it in. Seriously though, if we can get a decent phase, this has the potential to wipe out 2-3 months of misery for many. Getting the pieces to mesh is always tough though, and at this time and juncture, I am going to doubt getting something as clean as the Euro has to offer until we get some more data in. Cautious optimism.

Cautiously optimistic pattern wise. I’ve seen worse looks this season. Also, I’m traveling on the 13th. So naturally this will happen and probably be big.

Wrap around stuff for NWO is probably the last hope for a white Christmas in the area. Thinking maybe 0.5-1" at most, if we're lucky. Wind will be interesting Christmas Eve...