CCHurricane

All about perspective. It would certainly be a historic storm from Boston points south through Cape Cod and could threaten top-10 all time 2 day snowfall totals, while likely being number 1 near the Canal.

People will see and latch on to what they want to see, I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM at 84hrs out. Fun to look at, but in any other circumstance everyone would agree that the 12km NAM is essentially worthless.

What do we have to collectively pay to just lock this in. Can we all agree to this?

As we approach the Witching Hour...

Even the GFS has most of NH with a solid 6-12, and 12-18 likely with elevation in the Whites and/or towards the coast. Not a bad hit for pretty much everyone NH points south and to the east.

Cape Cod beginning to get in on the action.

Decent swipe early tomorrow down on the Cape on the Euro. Another shift to the north.

Any idea if this economic forecast was before or after Geely purchased the brand from Ford? For all intents and purposes, the brand was bankrupt after Ford ran them into the ground. Great that they are thriving now, love the current vehicle platform.

Also looking for paid services too. AccuWeather used to have solid functionality.

Somewhat off topic question here. Many years ago, I had access to a few model databases that would allow you to type in an airport code, and it would output the numerical values for the model run (NAM, EURO, GFS ect.). I enjoyed being able to look across a horizontal column and see the various parameters rather than switch between different graphical outputs as is the standard today. It also allowed easier export to excel and a blending/weighting of values across multiple model suites. I'm aware of the FOUS database, but was looking to see if anyone is currently aware of a provider who still allows for the raw numerical output from the major model runs?

Martha's Vineyard looking like they may be in for some wild weather. Northern part of the island a potential area for significant and severe weather...

This has been shared previously, but for the most part the “land” that the storm has been over is more so swamp, which will have been largely covered by storm surge, rather than land that would weaken the storm’s structural dynamics. A satellite image was shared a few pages back that did a great job illustrating this.

Irene was not a hurricane when it made its way through New England

00z Euro rolling in with a Martha's Vineyard "landfall", yet in similar fashion to the HWRF a rapidly weakening system.

Eastern Long Island track, but a rapidly weakening LP system. Really starts falling apart well offshore.

These sort of events provide such an interesting lens into cognitive behavioral biases. Confirmation and Overconfidence biases run amok!

Other countries are not he United States, which is a good thing for us. And again, until vaccination rates increase across the country there WILL be a correlation between cases and deaths, and therefore policy will continue to be based off of that assumption. If every state was like Massachusetts in terms of vaccination adoption, and mask mandates remained mandatory, you and I would be in 100% agreement.

I nearly brought up that exact same lesson! Good stuff.

If current vaccination rates were >75% across the nation, I firmly believe that would in fact be the messaging you would hear. Vaccination does not eliminate an individuals ability to contract or transmit COVID. For the vaccinated individual there is little risk, but if 30%-60% of the underlying adult community is not vaccinated, the safety guidelines are not being made to protect vaccinated individuals. While I understand the desire for guidance to adopt a more "live your life and deal with the consequences" sort of messaging, that decision would become pretty controversial given unknown outcomes. When things go bad, governments are questioned for not doing enough, and when situations don't meet sometimes alarmist expectations, they are lambasted for over-reacting.

Higher vaccination rates allow for a verifiable decoupling of cases vs. deaths here in the US and allows for policy to change accordingly. The Media is doing an extremely poor job of communicating that information to the public, and the Provincetown cluster was the perfect example. The story SHOULD have been that because individuals in the group were vaccinated, that mortality was eliminated. Instead the messaging has been focused on the fact that vaccinated individuals are being infected (while ignoring severity of sickness), which only further muddies the water for those who are hesitant to receive the vaccine, or further emboldens anti-vaxxers unscientific and unsubstantiated claims. Enjoying the summer here in Boston which has been business as usual for 4 months. No masks, no problem.

#ConfirmationBias I would love to hear your definition of "Poison" and substantiate that definition with facts.

Thanks for pointing this out. I had used the xmACIS2 website and perhaps got a bad data pull. It's reflecting 0.38 as well now.

To what extent does the NWS conduct reoccurring quality control tests at their main regional sites? Multiple stations surrounding Logan Airport (East Boston, Winthrop, North End) all indicate a pretty healthy rainfall of 0.5-1.0 inches last night. It certainly appeared to be the case given the conditions and radar signature. "Official" Boston tally from Logan came in with 0.13 inches Not the first time this July the official Boston numbers have been a little wonky.

While I don't doubt for a second that widespread obesity has played a major role in the level of United States deaths, based on what I have seen, on a per capita basis the United States has faired broadly in line with other European developed nations (Belgium, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland). One would have to imagine that challenged standards and a lack of testing infrastructure would indicate that most developing or under-developed countries have not had the necessary tools in place and are likely under reporting relative to the above. There are of a course a few bad actors who are likely underreporting for other reasons. Unfortunately the problems we are seeing here in the US are not unique to our country, for better or worse...

A shame that there doesn't appear to be any quality control at Logan Airport. Multiple stations surrounding the airport (East Boston, Winthrop, North End) all indicate 0.6-1.0 inches of rain, and it certainly appeared to be the case given the conditions. "Official" Boston tally from Logan came in with 0.13 inches