CCHurricane

Just lost power here in Barnstable (Cape Cod)

That stuff just east of the Cape is so painfully close!

Off topic: is there any rhyme or reason for the file size limitation adjusting up and down? First solid band approaching Cape Cod on radar.

Agreed. We’ll have to wait and see whether the precip gets pulled east once the LP situation is resolved.

Channeling your inner James, go wild!

Euro shows no sign of fizzle thankfully. 1.6-1.8 QPF at current temps can certainly get to 24” with ratios likely to be far better than 10:1. He would have been much better off simply putting 18-24+, rather than such a widespread +2 feet.

I know we’re in nowcast, but for what it’s worth, 00z with what looks to be a slight bump East in QPF output when compared to 12z. 1.2 inches of QPF for everyone east of southern NH, central MA, and through Central CT. Ratios should have any trouble being 12-15:1, and Boston points south down to Cape Cod 18-24”.

Barnstable. Live look out into Nantucket Sound.

Just made the drive from Boston to Cape Cod, road conditions still in manageable shape. Snow steadily increased on the way down, with accumulation becoming noticeable on the ground around the Canal.

Accumulating on Cape Cod

Can someone comment as to the 18z Euro's expected peak wind gusts for Boston / Cape Cod? Appreciate it!

How do potential wind gusts look during the height of the storm?

Not sure how that reflects relative to 12z, but banding enhancement certainly looks to be appearing with that “bump” in precip field.

This is partially a commentary on the modern news cycle, the need to be first and gain eyes, and the ease at which model output has now become accessible. In my opinion, even when there is model agreement prior, publicly making available snowfall amount forecasts or maps 18-24 hours prior to an event is irresponsible. We’ve seen time and again how things can shift, and even when Mets explicitly state this people often focus simply on the numbers. My two cents: There needs to be a step back to speaking in generalities and the impact, rather than the amount. -Significant -Moderate -Low

With ratios I think 18 is achievable. 15:1 will get them there based on most current QPF output.

Precip sheild is definitely more developed west, but LP movement north looks accelerated and center looks like it is actually east? Dueling lows... Odd run with almost two distinct precip fields, one for the LP that "loses" out, and than another one closer to the close as it takes over.

Lost in all of this chaos is Cape Cod no longer being a solid position...gradient between 2 feet and not much looks to be ~25 miles.

Just because you're (*the NAM, not you Phin!) is eventually right, doesn't mean that the last 9 times you were wrong should be ignored. The NAM being referenced outside of 24-48 hours should be banned from this forum.

Can anyone point to any mixing threat on the Upper/Middle Cape on the 18z Euro? Looking at 850mb temps on other runs, it looks like dynamic cooling will keep everywhere but maybe Nantucket and the outer Cape in the white.

For James!!!

Waiting for the Kuchie Euro maps

No disrespect to Bouchard, but I've found him to be perennially under-appreciate snowfall totals. He whiffed big earlier this year with our first storm here in Boston and I'll never forgive his 12-18 inches for Cape Cod in Jan 2005 blizzard. Ha!

Sir, this is a Wendy’s.

Quite an odd looking map given projected QPF rates (by even the most conservative global models) and where temps are expected to be. Will be interesting to monitor how this changes.

Very much agree. While unlikely, OES and high ratios could get them into the 30" ballpark according to the GFS. What a historic storm back in Jan 2005. My fondest memory was that as the storm was beginning, most TV Mets had rain and mixing for those across the Cape...never came!