TSG

Would you be worried about the WAR ruining our temps and pushing the baroclinic zone too far inland with the trough in that position? Seems like an issue we've had a few times this year.

It's not, but it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. An example: DC gets slightly more rain (~40") annually than Seattle (37"), but fairly close. Those locations hit those totals in very different ways. How we're getting to these averages is as important as the value itself as that is the weather we experience on the ground. We don't "feel" 10 year averages.

Anyone know of a place to bulk download historical values of the AO, NAO, EPO, etc? I've got a LOT of free time this week and want to mess around with some data

@psuhoffman Agreed, we did really well down this way. Reposting my "end of season" summary from late Feb when we were staring down highs in the 70s & 80s. I think we did get one more marginal event in mid March that the N/NW crew did better on. ----- A+ January in Charlottesville, we averaged 3.0F below average from Jan 3rd-31st (Jan 1/2 in the 60s) and depending on what measurements you look at it was somewhere in the top 5-10 range for Jan snowfall since 1920. I measured ~18.5" at my place. Hadn't seen an epic pattern like that since living in DC in 2015. We also got REALLY lucky with the mid-month storm. Never got above freezing here during that event so we maintained the snowpack for about 4 weeks straight. Would've been nice to have another 1-2 storms to track, but I broke my thumb skiing late Jan so the season ended for me then and there... bring on severe season! Overall winter rating: B, short but sweet for western-central VA ----- That mid-month storm had a huge effect on how the entire month felt. With the way the low evolved as it came up the coast, West-Central VA never got blasted with the warm ocean air. We pretty much just dryslotted and stayed in the low 30s before the later temp crash, while areas 100 miles to the north hit 45 under moderate rain and lost most, if not all, of their snowpack.

wxtrix doesn't like making new friends

you might want to check the tag at the top of our home page again

this is like telling someone in Purcellville they live near DCA

The guy lives like a 5 min drive from our subforum's borders. This is not a case of LET EVERYONE IN. Y'all need to chill the f out

The problem is when a moderator says outside of subforum obs are fine to post when they're near her backyard, but any others aren't

Yeah the geographic boundaries for subforums work, but telling some guy to **** off back to the Philly subforum when he lives 10 miles off the MD/PA border is just mean and pointless. In an era of dying online forums this is entirely the wrong attitude to have.

You're going against your own logic from 3 posts back. I don't have any skin in this game but it's kind of obnoxious to see from a moderator

Chester County touches MD. If you're willing to take obs from Shrewbury/New Freedom why wouldn't the same logic be applied to the whole southern PA border along our "subforum"?

Looking for home weather station recs in the $150-250 range. Is Ambient Weather still good quality?

Not quite. It had the idea on that run but the next day (dec 9th) we got like 3 runs in a row showing snow/frozen for central VA and north, followed by 2 or 3 showing suppression with us maybe getting some flurries. It didn't "lock in" on the correct solution until 12z on the 10th. So about 4-5 days.

Adding to what Mappy and PSU already said, if you check out the 3k NAM at the onset of precip you can get some clues there. The peaks along the Blue Ridge for example are only a couple degrees colder than the valley (Staunton/Harrisonburg area), but that's enough to have a large difference. Ice will barely accrete right at 32 degrees, you get closer to the upper 20s and it's a very different story. Later on when the warm nose does finally push through at ~925mb, the ridges and valley all switch over to rain around the same time. TL;DR: In this specific setup the high elevations accrete more ice because of conditions at the start, not because they hold onto the cold air longer. Thats also a large part of why these marginal events are so hard to forecast. Small temp swings can make for large changes in precip type/duration.

I would argue you don't have a clue what you're talking about

Yup, saw this all the time when I lived in AdMo/Woodley Park (roughly 175' asl) and worked on L St. Lots of marginal events where I walked to work in snow boots because of an inch or two of slush in my neighborhood, only to take the metro downtown and the sidewalks were bare. There were even a few events where that ~125' difference was enough to turn it into a wintry mix from all snow. Lots of tall buildings covered in materials that like to hold onto heat will do that!

Can't remember the last time we had air this dry. 45/-2 at CHO. That's 14% RH... EDIT: now 45/-4 at 1:40pm. 12% RH

Radar sure looks snow squally up near the M/D line

By far the best fall colors in recent memory for me. The Charlottesville area is stupidly gorgeous right now, it looks like Northern NE around here. Drone shot below from this morning

Not even close to cold enough up top. Freezing line was up around 700mb at 8am this morning. 850s were in the low to mid 40s.

Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1227 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 VAC003-540-212030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0112.220821T1627Z-220821T2030Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Albemarle VA-City of Charlottesville VA- 1227 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected. * WHERE...A portion of central Virginia, including the following county: Albemarle and City of Charlottesville. * WHEN...Until 430 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Charlottesville... Newcomb Hall... Scott Stadium... Monticello... Barracks... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

It's so dark in Cville right now that street lights are coming on 72/69 with rain switching between moderate and heavy

Today has got to be one of the weirdest weather days for August I can remember. This little area of convergence has been stuck over the Staunton -> Charlottesville corridor for more than 12 hours now. Didn't make it above 70 until 11am, then only made it to 73 for a high. I think we'll be back into the 60s well before sunset. We've picked up about 0.5" since midnight.