TSG
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Everything posted by TSG
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It's 5 hours in the winter. 4 in summer
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The GFS had the mix line into PA 2.5 days ago. It moved to the Euro way more than the other way around
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The axis of heavy precip to our West was as far North as Cinncinnati into SWPA on the GFS. It's now moved that into central KY and Southern WV. More like a 100 mile shift imo
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Idk about "meet in the middle". the GFS did about 80% of the movement Last 6 runs.
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GFS is colder/souther
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Go check H5 the last few runs of the GFS vs Euro. One has moved a lot more than the other and it's not the foreign model
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Anyone have the 00Z UKmet kuchera totals?
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I believe that Jan 3rd one was fairly steady on the central VA jackpot, but expanded precip north leading up to go time. The system juiced up in general the last few model cycles
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have we all forgotten the NAM is basically worthless outside of 36 hours? and really only is worth serious consideration under 24? I feel like I'm going crazy over here. I thought that was an unwavering truth known to this board. Especially older heads
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I think we have a couple more south shifts coming for the NAM
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Things I am sure of after the last 24 hours: - The 12kNAM is indeed run on a 2001 Nokia flip phone - This subforum is completely out of snowstorm shape. Worrying about the NAM 36+ hrs from start time lol. The 2016 version of us would be howling with laughter - The Euro is still king/queen/grandmaster
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The only real difference I've seen the last few Euro runs is the angle of the heavy precip bands, and even then not a whole lot. From WSW->ENE to closer to due East.
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I would lean even more towards 12-24 hrs. I'm not a met though just a dude with a solid memory of past events. The NAM has scored some coups over the years (specifically about precip type for specific locations), but the massive differences in precip fields between it and the globals tells me it's likely doing it's "overamp at range" thing. If it is, we'll see it come south on the overnight runs.
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We are so rusty in here. No one would be putting this much faith in the NAM @ 48hrs 5 years ago lol
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NAM overamping a system at range? Impossible. Never happened before.
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I feel like you need some context. This is the best medium/long range look this entire area has had since Feb 2015
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Weenies gonna weenie. It's in their genes
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A bottle of wine deep, some inspiration, and you get this:
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my point is the people complaining are not forecast to get anywhere close to 9", so give us a break!
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You do realize a solid chunk of this subforum lives south of DC, right? You're responding to those people. I get 2" of snow and then frozen slop for 12 hrs.
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yeah well I don't need the Euro to come south. It's already there
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It's not meshing well with his holiday vacation plans in the stratosphere
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it's over. shit the blinds
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Your constant disappointment would disappear if you stopped equating day 7-10 GFS output with official guidance from a government agency. The last time it showed any significant snowstorm for our area this weekend was 06z 11/30
