TSG

~40k ft cloud tops on a couple of those cells south of CHO

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has Cville back over 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, with the 2000 line not far off. That seems like enough to work with. MLCAPE not nearly as robust, but it is changing quickly.

I'm thinking we have a solid chance at round two down this way. Sun is poking out and the air feels thick. We're up to 75/66 after dropping to 66/63 around 10:30am this morning during the heavy stuff.

only a minor adjustment...

Yes. Your back yard is also not representative of overall patterns. No offense intended... but you can't tell a difference because you aren't looking at the right things. How much snow a little postage stamp of land south of Baltimore has gotten the past few winters is not a useful datapoint.

@Maestrobjwa I got thinking about this some more and I think it's important to remember we are humans with subconscious bits of our memory that influence how things feel. This year and the past two we've had above normal March temps followed by avg or slightly negative departures in April and May (20/21). In my mind this would tend to "feel" like a cold spring, especially if those warm March avg temps were brought on by a few key warm stretches towards the end of the month and not a general slightly above average regime. To have that then be followed up by weeks and weeks of the same temps would feel "cold" even if it's about average. 2018 is also in recent memory which is pretty much the coldest early spring we've had in the past 2 decades. May obviously bucked the trend that year but the memory was made at that point. My guess is those two things make the past few years seem out of place.

Slow day at work. Made some graphs. Data is from DCA

back away from the edge bud, it's mid-April

THE VILLAGE!! This pic just made my day. I'm a 2014 grad, lived in Eagle.

My coworker up in the valley near Staunton has SN/SN+ coming down

Wow it is miserable in Cville. I think we're all or mostly rain at this point but the temp was 40 when I left for work and has only gone down. 35/34 at 11:30

Distant thunder and a quick downpour in Lake Barcroft. Radar looked much more intense than the ground truth.

October is by far my favorite month in the mid-atlantic, especially the first half. Humidity starts drying up but we still regularly get into the 70s mid-day. It's a annual glimpse of what summer is like in Northern New England

Sun poking through in Charlottesville. Wasn't expecting this ahead of the last line.

I forgot how dry the air is right now. It's going to be fun to watch the temp drop after sunset

DAMN it's cold out there. Walking at lunch was not very fun. We're currently running about 6-7 degrees below the forecast down this way. Seems unlikely we get even close to the forecast high of 54(??) with it being 40 at 1:30pm. What guidance was Sterling looking at?? Jumping back through the NAM runs from yesterday, none had Cville above about 46-47 for this afternoon. 40/5

Some impressive temp anomalies on the GFS for next week. Charlottesville looks to be below 40F from late Monday night through sunrise Thursday. Most of Tuesday we sit around freezing

And lots of it. I've heard 5+ strikes in the past 30min, some within a mile or two

Says the guy rocking an 8 year old signature

awful, send it back

Check out what's happening down here near Cville on radar. Lots of lift coming through in the next few hours. These bands are the real deal. edit: Culpeper is about to get smoked

SN/SN+ in Charlottesville ahead of this band coming in from the West, all but paved surfaces have caved. Wind picking up finally. 32/31

you made the right choice heading back to Arlington, so far pretty boring down this way. No real wind to speak of yet. I do like that the HRRR has some back-building that keeps the snow on until early afternoon

Seems to be all snow in Cville. Ratios not great in-between bands. Fatties mixing in 32/31

March 29 for CHO