TSG

Late September through October gets my vote.

First band racing North just crossed through Charlottesville. Elsa has arrived!!

Not trying to be "that guy", but your link doesn't mention this being documented before the cicadas emerged. Their original story from June 11th says "in the past 10 days" reports started rolling in. End of May/beginning of June was the cicada peak around DC. They also mention this is now being seen in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky... three other states that also have Brood X. Seems suspicious to me.

clean up on aisle tropical, @stormtracker

2014 was an epic summer in my book, last year I taught sailing full time on the Potomac.

77/70 Clouds cleared out for a while, but we have high altitude junk coming in from the SW now which is limiting heating.

Some high clouds, but decent sun making it through. 77/70, up from 73 at 1pm.

We're getting flurries all the way down here in Charlottesville!

Sleet coming down in Charlottesville. 44/12

And Baltimore for comparison

Here's what I found for Raleigh

Just switched over to a snow/rain mix in Charlottesville. 34/33

Great idea here! 38.01842, -78.49898

66/30 at the 1pm update from CHO!! Windows are open, come on in spring

We've got a light glaze on elevated surfaces in Charlottesville. All rain. 31/30

LOL, no you definitely don't, I remember it well. I've been on here every day for weeks. When the trends stopped going in the right direction and models were still all over the place with the mix line I lowered my expectations quite a bit. This may be me seeing things that aren't there, but what I've noticed the past few years with setups where large amounts of sleet/zr are forecast is the 3k NAM tends to do pretty damn well with placing that feature. I think it was the late March 2018 storm where it was honking for sleet to move in much faster than most other guidance and sure enough... DC was forecast for something like 6-8" before the flip and ended up with about 1" of snow and 2" of sleet. On your second point, I do find it pretty amazing. I've argued that our base state isn't what it used to be on here before.

I mean I understand why people are frustrated but there were signs everywhere that this was a marginal setup with big bust potential. We didn't have anything close to model consensus even 24 hrs out.. The 3k NAM was showing pretty much exactly what's happening right now yesterday morning. A little stronger/snowier on the front end thump, but it had mixed sleet/snow already spreading up to NE MD starting a little after sunrise.

The amount of complaining in here is comical. This storm looked like it was headed for Buffalo a week ago y'all. Frozen stuff is falling from the sky. Be happy.

36/14 Highs around Charlottesville busted about 2 degrees below forecast NWS had a forecast of 40, we hit 38 for maybe 30 mins about an hour ago.

Temps around Charlottesville are busting 4-5 degrees below forecast. High was supposed to be 40 here. CHO hit 36, UVA Main Campus 35. Currently 34/14 EDIT: Might've spoken too soon. CHO up to 38.

Wow after midnight was really rocking. I went to bed at 11:30 but saw the radar continuing to light up to the West. Should've stayed up!

Light precip between bands in staying all snow!! Was not expecting this before sunset. Already down to 31

Lol. I think there's more central VA forum members than a lot of you realize

Def more than -SN at this point

Mixed rain/snow in Charlottesville. Started as sleet, went to all rain, now slowly changing over to snow 33/32