TSG

Not sure I understand the macro comment. Typo? meant micro? I am certainly on your side when it comes to it being more difficult for us to see snow now than in the past. I've been called out multiple times for supporting it. I don't think this specific case can be attributed to that much if at all though. The SW flow at the surface up to ~900mb starts on the 30th/31st when that shortwave is still exiting Canada, not when it digs into the South and starts coming East on the 1st/2nd. There is NOTHING to resist that flow. No sign of a high pressure to our North anywhere. This is such a classic way for us to fail it's making my head spin that people are acting like it would normally work 10+ years ago. There's a friggin GLL (Great Lakes Low).... what I learned to be our #1 enemy for snowfall around here. IMO this setup sucks and would still suck if it was in the distant past.. And if we weren't all so traumatized from years of low snow I think more would be calling it for what it is. If you do have a specific example of where this worked previously I'll happily eat crow, but thinking back on past seasons this just seems like a stinker of an opportunity top to bottom.

I think a lot of people are ignoring the 48 hrs leading up to that point. Sure we have subzero 850s, but that doesn't matter if we've had SW flow at the surface for 2.5 days. This is not a good setup for snow anywhere below high elevation. Would you really expect snow in Winchester on the 3rd looking at this setup on the 1st? I wouldn't.

I don't understand the doom and gloom over this setup on the 3rd. This just isn't a good look for MA snow and never was. There's no real cold in the East to work with yet, it's all behind the storm. We need it in front.

i'm going to disagree pretty strongly on this point. The boundary layer up to ~900mb is torched from 2.5 days of Southwest/South flow starting on the 31st. Yeah these kind of storms can bomb out and make up for less than ideal temps, but there's no real cold for the storm to pull down from the N/NW. The panel below says it all, >0C 850s all the way to Maine... 45-50F surface coming in at 20kts off the Atlantic over NJ/DE. That's just not a recipe for snow in the Mid-Altantic in my experience, bombing cyclone or not.

Canaan and Timberline have about 1000' of extra elevation over Deep Creek/Wisp which helps a lot when temps are marginal. Those resorts almost always maintain better snowpack.

Late season form and we haven't even hit the solstice

This is how I feel right now. Not sure which way temps are going to play out the rest of winter, but with this many storms hugging the coast the past few months, it's hard for me to imagine we don't get a flush hit at least once before April.

PBP much appreciated. Taking Stormtracker's place this year?

What? there absolutely is an effect. Hagerstown is at like 500ft ASL, the Catoctins then top out over 1800ft just to the East. Wolfsville is definitely not benefitting from upslope, but it's not because the terrain isn't high enough. It's because they're only at 1000ft ASL and 1.5 miles East of the highest terrain in the Catoctins. They're sitting in a shadow too. It's not as bad as what Thurmont faces but it's enough to be easily seen on a map (below).

How many years have you been doing these now? Damn impressive this year. I thought we were going to blow through your numbers a couple weeks ago but the slowdown does seem imminent.

Do we have any fall leaf color experts in here? I'm wondering if the rain from Ophelia can save us from going straight to brown in the drought stricken areas or if this is just a little too late.

Still at 984 on the latest recon pass. Fresh convection popping up in the western half with a decent amount of lightning. Might get another small drop in pressure before landfall

the 5-10 miles of cooler SSTs along the coast are not going to have much effect on how strong this is when it lands

SSTs offshore are well over 80 These two stations are roughly equidistant from the current center, NW and SE respectively. The GS is between those two so temps are likely even higher where the storm is. Frying Pan Shoals is now at 80.1, was at 81.7 just before midnight. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 83.8 at this buoy https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

that's rich after reading your last 10 posts in this thread. The storm is strengthening and it's clearly got tropical characteristics at this point. You've been poo-pooing this like a 5 y/o who needs a nap since yesterday.

And? that waters been getting churned by TS force winds for hours and hours. What was the temp 24 hrs ago?

Thanks for confirming how insufferable Gtown grads are

Glad we finally got this recon pass so all the debs can shut it and crawl back into their miserable little holes

Planning to chase this one from the Northern Neck. My parent's have a place on the Rappahanock side in Lancaster County. I'm thinking Reedville will be an exciting place on Saturday.

Do you have any visibility into what the equipment spec is? Is it a pyranometer? reference cell?

As an engineer in the solar industry, #1 has me breathing heavy

some 65+dBZ returns on that cell sitting over I-83

I'm convinced they don't check just so they can complain about it later

Anyone know of a website where you can get high quality copies of these old hand-drawn pressure and temp maps? Really want to frame one and put it on a wall somewhere

Might want to check your measuring equipment. OKV was 86 at 7:15