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TSG

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Everything posted by TSG

  1. TSG
    I hope we get this weather straight through October every year
  2. TSG
    What causes that to be so prevalent today?
  3. TSG
    65 dbz pixels on the cell West of Charlottesville
  4. TSG
    This morning's HRRR runs really missed on the convection in central VA right now. Moderate rain and a few rumbles of thunder in Cville the past 30 mins. 82/76 at CHO. swampy.
  5. TSG
    Right, with a 75 degree DP it needs to be about 95-100 to hit a "comfortable" humidity level and then the heat index is like 105+. I'll take 85, overcast and swampy every time.
  6. TSG
    Not when the dewpoint is 75
  7. TSG
    This main cell over Cville has 45k foot echo tops with some of the loudest thunder I've heard in a while
  8. TSG
    I see the watch is through 5am. Seems like they're fairly confident in an evolution like the 3kNAM has of the Ohio MCS making it over the mountains and re-strengthening after midnight.
  9. TSG
    I swear the dog-leg turn in the Potomac causes things to spin up down there more than normal. Anyone know if this has ever been looked into?
  10. TSG
    Heavy rain and lots of CG lightning with this complex that's been sitting over Albemarle the last hour. Starting to get nervous with that line to my north really solidifying and picking up speed..
  11. TSG
    WOW @ the last few scans. Radar lighting up across central VA/southern MD
  12. TSG

    Winter 2022-23

    TSG replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Epic writeup. I knew a lot of this but seeing it so well laid out is nice. Saving to share with others!
  13. TSG
    I'll never forget that week. It was gnarly being outside. I was working at a summer sailing camp on the Potomac and we were gathering kids up and spraying them down (and ourselves) with the boat washing hoses to keep cool.
  14. TSG
    Radar looking really bad over 64 right now. Hook echo now clearly visible. Lots of rotation..
  15. TSG
    That large cell WSW of Richmond has been going since 4:45pm when it was coming off the Blue Ridge West of Charlottesville. Impressive echo tops, over 50k ft now. I got to watch it march into the Piedmont from the reservoir.
  16. TSG
    The section of the large line to the south that came through downtown Charlottesville was legit. Didn't see any hail but winds were easily gusting to 60+, rain going sideways, stormwater infrastructure quickly overloaded. Looks like CHO didn't get hit as hard based on the 5-min obs. Best storm of the year so far.
  17. TSG
    some sort of triple point visible on radar? What's going on SE of CHO? There's pretty clearly some kind of warm boundary stretching across VA. Made a drawing to show what I'm talking about.
  18. TSG
    From my place south of downtown Charlottesville about 20 mins ago. Images are a bit blurry because of the compression. Looking SW Looking South
  19. TSG
    ~40k ft cloud tops on a couple of those cells south of CHO
  20. TSG
    Latest SPC mesoanalysis has Cville back over 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, with the 2000 line not far off. That seems like enough to work with. MLCAPE not nearly as robust, but it is changing quickly.
  21. TSG
    I'm thinking we have a solid chance at round two down this way. Sun is poking out and the air feels thick. We're up to 75/66 after dropping to 66/63 around 10:30am this morning during the heavy stuff.
  22. TSG
    only a minor adjustment...
  23. TSG
    Yes. Your back yard is also not representative of overall patterns. No offense intended... but you can't tell a difference because you aren't looking at the right things. How much snow a little postage stamp of land south of Baltimore has gotten the past few winters is not a useful datapoint.
  24. TSG
    @Maestrobjwa I got thinking about this some more and I think it's important to remember we are humans with subconscious bits of our memory that influence how things feel. This year and the past two we've had above normal March temps followed by avg or slightly negative departures in April and May (20/21). In my mind this would tend to "feel" like a cold spring, especially if those warm March avg temps were brought on by a few key warm stretches towards the end of the month and not a general slightly above average regime. To have that then be followed up by weeks and weeks of the same temps would feel "cold" even if it's about average. 2018 is also in recent memory which is pretty much the coldest early spring we've had in the past 2 decades. May obviously bucked the trend that year but the memory was made at that point. My guess is those two things make the past few years seem out of place.
  25. TSG
    Slow day at work. Made some graphs. Data is from DCA
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