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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    18z RGEX XR looks pretty great. Hold onto hope folks!
  2. paulythegun
    The 557ww model also out to sea, though it looks abit closer to the coast than 12z UM, ACCESS-G, and GEOS-5. Reminds me more of the look on 12z ARPEGE
  3. paulythegun
    GEOS-5 (12z) also basically out to sea, joining the ACCESS-G, SPIRE, UM(mmmmmmmmmmmm) models
  4. paulythegun
    hisorically, this has been typical during the ukmet/ecmwf lag between noon and 1pm. unfortunately, CRAS has been discontinued.
  5. paulythegun
    Ummmm.....the UM model is in. Also inland, like ACCESS-G.
  6. paulythegun
    ACCESS-G is WAYYY inland. TOSS!
  7. paulythegun
    ARPEGE looking good!
  8. paulythegun
    Helpful link for everyone:
  9. paulythegun
    The spire model looks like the euro too
  10. paulythegun
    slight NW trend, more intense
  11. paulythegun
    The TPV lobe is way further north on this run (compared to the bad 12z euro run). Good!
  12. paulythegun
    Generally speaking, you don't want to see the confluence setup OVER WASHINGTON DC
  13. paulythegun
    Haha I hope this trends toward the tpv phasing with the trailing energy
  14. paulythegun
    wow, even the SPIRE model is moving our way. 00z: 12z
  15. paulythegun
    reverse jinxed it
  16. paulythegun
    I remember these well! before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers.
  17. paulythegun
    RE: January 16th:
  18. paulythegun
    uh oh!
  19. paulythegun
    great points all. i just wrote all those wobbles off as "different cows being hit by rain or snow" but now i remember that there are cities in the midwest
  20. paulythegun
    Next weekend's cutter has been well modeled for a while. GFS remarkably consistent. I wonder if it's just easier to model inland storm systems? No messy coastal transfer/redevelopment? Or if there's something else about this setup that's easier for models to resolve? I suppose this just doesn't seem very complex. Just a vort orbiting around a well defined trough.
  21. paulythegun
    They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen
  22. paulythegun
    This seems extreme
  23. paulythegun
    January is ROCKIN'!!!
  24. paulythegun
    38F and light sleet and rain at the base of dc’s mighty Mount Hamilton
  25. paulythegun
    The 925mb hole setting up over Roanoke
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